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Population Growth

　　The growth of population  during the past few centuries is no proof that population will continue to grow straight upward toward infinity and doom. On the contrary, demographic history offers evidence that population growth has not been at all constant. According to paleoecologist Edward Deevey, the past million years show three momentous changes. The first, a rapid increase in population around  one  m illion B.  C., followed  the  innovations of tool making and  tool using. But when  the  new  power from the use  of tools has been  exploited, the  rate of world population  growth fell and became almost stable. The next rapid  jump in population started perhaps 10,000 years ago,  when mankind began to keep herds,  plow and  plant  the earth. Once again when initial productivity  gains  had been absorbed, the rate  of population growth abated. These two episodes suggest that the third great change, the present rapid growth, which began in the West between 250 and 350 years ago, may also slow down when, or if, technology begins to yield  fewer  innovations.  Of  course,  the  current  knowledge  revolution  may  continue  without foreseeable end. Either way - contrary to popular belief in constant geometric growth - population can be expected in the long run to adjust to productivity. And when one takes this view, population growth is seen to represent economic progress and human triumph rather than social failure.
　　全文翻譯：人口增長
　　以往幾個世紀人口的增長并不能證明人口會無限地直線向上增長直到毀滅的 地步。  相反地，人口統(tǒng)計史料證明人口的增長完全不是穩(wěn)定的。  古生態(tài)學家愛德華·狄維 認為，在過去 100 萬年間出現(xiàn)過 3 次重大的變動。  第一次在公元前 100 萬年左右，隨著在 工具的制作和使用上的革新而出現(xiàn)人口迅速增長。  但當工具的使用所產(chǎn)生的新動力被充分 利用以后，世界人口增長率下降并且趨于穩(wěn)定。  第二次人口劇增大約始于人類開始蓄畜、 墾耕的 10，000 年前。  一旦最初的生產(chǎn)力增長被吸收殆盡，人口的增長再次衰落。  以上兩 段說明，若技術革新的成果開始減少，從 250 到 350 年前就在西方開始出現(xiàn)的并且目前還在 繼續(xù)的人口迅速增長可能也會放慢。 當然，當前的知識革命也許會持續(xù)下去而無法預見其 末來。  無論如何，與那種認為人口以幾何級數(shù)持續(xù)增長的觀點相反，從長遠的觀點來說， 人口可望受到生產(chǎn)力的調節(jié)。  接受了這一觀點，人口的增長就可以被看成是經(jīng)濟進步和人 類勝利的標志，而不是社會衰敗的標志。