The Campaign for Election

　　Although presidential elections occur every 4 years, many people feel that they do not have a true understanding of how presidential campaigns operate.

　　The winner in the November general election is almost certain to be either the Republican or the Democratic nominee. A minor-party or independent candidate, such as George Wallace in 1968, John Anderson in 1980, or Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996, can draw votes away from the major-party nominees but stands almost no chance of defeating them.

　　A major-party nominee has the critical advantage of support from the party faithful. Earlier in the twentieth century, this support was so firm and steady that the victory of the stronger party's candidate was almost a certainty. Warren G. Harding accepted the 1920 Republican nomination at his Ohio home, stayed there throughout most of the campaign, and won a full victory simply because most of the voters of his time were Republicans. Party loyalty has declined in recent decades, but more than two-thirds of the nation's voters still identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, and most of them support their party's presidential candidate. Even Democrat George McGovern, who had the lowest level of party support among recent nominees, was backed in 1972 by nearly 60 percent of his party'svoters.

　　Presidential candidates act strategically. In deciding whether to pursue a course of action, they try to estimate its likely impact on the voters. During the 1992 campaign, a sign on the wall of Clinton's headquarters in Little Rock read, "The economy, Stupid." The slogan was the idea of James Carville, Clinton's chief strategist, and was meant as a reminder to the candidate and the staff to keep the campaign focused on the nation's slow-moving economy, which ultimately was the issue that defeated Bush. As in 1980, when Jimmy Carter lostto Ronald Reagan during tough economic times, the voters were motivated largely by a desire for change.

　　Candidates try to project a strong leadership image. Whether voters accept this image, however, depends more on external factors than on a candidate's personal characteristics. In 1991, after the
Gulf War, bush's approval rating reached 91 percent, the highest level recorded since polling began in the 1930s. A year later, with the nation's economy in trouble, Bush's approval rating dropped below 40 percent. Bush tried to stir images of his strong leadership of the war, but voters remained concerned about the economy.

　　The candidates' strategies are shaped by many considerations, including the constitutional provision that each state shall have electoral votes equal in number to its representation in Congress.

　　Each state thus gets two electoral votes for its Senate representation and a varying number of electoral votes depending on its House representation. Altogether, there are 538 electoral votes (including three for the District of Columbia, even though it has no voting representatives in Congress). To win the presidency, a candidate must receive at least 270 votes, an electoral majority.

　　Candidates are particularly concerned with winning the states which have the largest population, such as California (with 54 electoral votes), New York (33), Texas (32), Florida (25), Pensylvania (23), lllinois (22), and Ohio (21). Victory in the eleven largest states alone would provide an electoral majority, and presidential candidates therefore spend most of their time campaigning in those states. Clinton recived only 43 percent of the popular vote in 1992, compared with Bush's 38 percent and Perot's 19 percent; but Clinton won in states that gave him an overwhelming 370 electoral votes, compared with 168 for Bush and none for Perot.

　　競選活動

　　雖然總統(tǒng)競爭每四年舉行一次，但是許多人感到對競選大戰(zhàn)的運(yùn)作沒有真正的理解。

　　11月份大選的獲勝者幾乎肯定是共和黨或民主黨的提名者。小黨派或獨(dú)立候選人，如1968年的喬治·華萊士，1980年的約翰·安德森或1992年和1996年的羅絲·佩羅，可能從大黨的提名人那里拉走了一些選票，但幾乎沒有人可能戰(zhàn)勝他們。

　　大黨提名人具有得到黨的忠實(shí)信徒支持這一關(guān)鍵的優(yōu)勢。20世紀(jì)早期，這種支持是如此堅(jiān)定、可靠，以至于較大黨派候選人的勝利幾乎是肯定的。華倫·G·哈定在俄亥俄州的家鄉(xiāng)接受了1920年共和黨的提名，并且在競選大戰(zhàn)大部分時間里都呆在俄亥俄。他大獲全勝只是因?yàn)楫?dāng)時投票的大部分是共和黨黨員。在近幾十年內(nèi)，黨員對黨派的忠誠削弱了，但2/3強(qiáng)的國家的投票人依然認(rèn)為他們自己是共和黨人或民主黨人，他們大多支持自己黨派的總統(tǒng)候選人。即使是來擁有最低水平黨派支持的民主人喬治·麥戈?duì)�，�?972年仍得到了近60％本黨派投票人的支持。

　　總統(tǒng)候選人的行為頗講究策略。在決定是否遵循一項(xiàng)行動方針時，他們要盡量估計(jì)一下該方針對投票人可能具有的影響。在1992年競選大戰(zhàn)期間，小石城 克林頓競選總部的墻上有一個牌子，上面寫著"經(jīng)濟(jì)、蠢貨"。這條標(biāo)語是克林頓的首席戰(zhàn)略詹姆斯·卡維爾的，主意，作為候選人和競選班子全體成員的警世語，使這場競選大戰(zhàn)集中在國家緩慢增漲的經(jīng)濟(jì)上，這成為最后擊敗布什的策略。

　　如同在1980年的經(jīng)濟(jì)困難時期，吉米·卡特輸給了羅納德·里根，投票人的積極性主要來源于意圖改變的愿望。

　　候選人盡辦突出表現(xiàn)一種強(qiáng)有力的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)形象。然而，投票人是否接受這一形象，比起候選人的個人特點(diǎn)來更要依靠外部因素。在1991年海灣戰(zhàn)爭后，布什的支持率達(dá)到91％，這是本世紀(jì)30年代開始民意測驗(yàn)以來的最高記錄。一年后，因國民經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入困境，布什的支持率降低到40％以下。布什盡力去激起人們對他在戰(zhàn)爭時期強(qiáng)有力的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)形象的回憶，但投標(biāo)票人依然關(guān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)問題。

　　候選人的策略的形成要考慮到許多因素，包括憲法的這一條款：每個州具有的選舉人的票數(shù)與其在國會中的代表人數(shù)相同。因此，每個州因其參議院代表得到兩張選舉人票，依靠其眾議院代表得到不同數(shù)量的選舉人票�？偣灿�538張選舉人票。要贏得總統(tǒng)職務(wù)，一個候選人必須得到選舉的多數(shù)票，即270張選票。

　　候選人特別關(guān)注是否能贏得人口最多的州，如加利福尼亞州（有54張選舉人票）、紐約州（33張）、得克薩斯州（32張）、佛羅里達(dá)州（25 張）、賓夕法尼亞州（23張）、伊里諾伊斯州（22張）和俄亥俄州（21張）。僅在11個最大的州的勝利就可提供選舉的大多數(shù)，因此總統(tǒng)候選人在那些州花費(fèi)大部分時間進(jìn)行活動。1992年，克林頓只得到43％的大眾選票，相比之下布什得到38％，佩羅19％。但克林頓獲取支持的州給了壓倒優(yōu)勢的370張選舉人票，相比之下給了布什168張，佩羅一張也沒有。