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The falling dollar
THE dollar’s tumble this week was attended by predictable shrieks from the markets; but as it fell to a 20-month low of $1.32 against the euro, the only real surprise was that it had not slipped sooner. Indeed, there are good reasons to expect its slide to continue, dragging it below the record low of $1.36 against the euro that it hit in December 2004. The recent decline was triggered by nasty news about the American economy. New figures this week suggested that the housing market’s troubles are having a wider impact on the economy. Consumer confidence and durable-goods orders both fell more sharply than expected. In contrast, German business confidence has risen to a 15-year high. There are also mounting concerns that central banks in China and elsewhere, which have been piling up dollars assiduously for years, may start selling. Yet cyclical factors only partly explain why the dollar has been strong. At bottom, its attractiveness is based more on structural factors-or, more accurately, on an illusion about structural differences between the American and European economies. The main reason for the dollar’s strength has been the widespread belief that the American economy vastly outperformed the world’s other richcountry economies in recent years. But the figures do not support the hype. Sure, America’s GDP growth has been faster than Europe’s, but that is mostly because its population has grown more quickly too. Dig deeper and the difference shrinks. Official figures of productivity growth, which should in theory be an important factor driving currency movements, exaggerate America’s lead. If the two are measured on a comparable basis, productivity growth over the past decade has been almost the same in the euro area as it has in America. Even more important, the latest figures suggest that, whereas productivity growth is now slowing in America, it is accelerating in the euro zone. So, contrary to popular perceptions, America’s economy has not significantly outperformed Europe’s in recent years. And to achieve this not-much-better-than parity, America has had to pump itself full of steroids. Since 2000 its structural budget deficit (after adjusting for the impact of the economic cycle) has widened sharply, while American households’ saving rate has plunged, causing the current-account deficit to swell. Over the same period, the euro-area economies saw no fiscal stimulus and household saving barely budged. America’s growth, thus, has been driven by consumer spending. That spending, supported by dwindling saving and increased borrowing, is clearly unsustainable; and the consequent economic and financial imbalances must inevitably unwind. As that happens, the country could face a prolonged period of slower growth. As for Europe, the old continent is hobbled by inflexible product and labour markets. But that, paradoxically, is an advantage: it means the place has a lot of scope for improvement. Some European countries are beginning to contemplate (and, to a limited extent, undertake) economic reforms. If they push ahead, their growth could actually speed up over the coming years. Once investors spot this, they are likely to conclude that the euro is a better bet than the dollar. 考研詞匯： tumble[ˈtʌmbəl] v.①(使)摔倒;②打滾，翻騰;n.摔跤，跌倒 slip[slip] v.①滑，滑倒;②滑落，滑掉;③溜走;n.疏忽，小錯(cuò)，口誤，筆誤 [真題例句] Step outside and you could break a leg slipping (v.①) on your doormat.[1999年閱讀1] [例句精譯] 如果你走出去，可能會(huì)滑倒在門(mén)墊上，摔傷一條腿。 assiduously [əˈsidjuəsli] ad.勤勉地, 懇切地 exaggerate[igˈzædʒəreit] v.夸大，夸張 [真題例句] Concerns were raised (49：that) witnesses might be encouraged to exaggerate their stories in court to (50：ensure) guilty verdicts.[2001年完形] [例句精譯]人們開(kāi)始擔(dān)心：(接受報(bào)酬)可能會(huì)鼓勵(lì)證人在法庭上夸大他們經(jīng)歷的事情，以保證(陪審團(tuán)對(duì)被告)作出有罪的判決。 outperform [autpə’fɔ:m] vt.做得比......好,勝過(guò) dwindle [ˈdwindl] v.縮小 背景常識(shí)介紹： 美元持續(xù)走低，意味著美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)存在缺陷，但是否就意味著地球上其他國(guó)家也將遭受劫難?答案是否定的。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)將從美元的逐步下滑中受益。這將有助于緩解全球流動(dòng)資金失衡狀況，并且通過(guò)將生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到美國(guó)可貿(mào)易領(lǐng)域，緩沖房地產(chǎn)泡沫破滅給美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的震蕩。誠(chéng)然，美元的下滑將影響歐洲及亞洲的出口，但如果這些地區(qū)的央行現(xiàn)有的利率走低，進(jìn)而促進(jìn)內(nèi)需-這也正是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)達(dá)到重新平衡所需要的局面-那么這種影響將會(huì)被抵消�，F(xiàn)今歐洲及亞洲的強(qiáng)勢(shì)增長(zhǎng)也將有助于防止美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的低迷蔓延至整個(gè)世界。 參考譯文： 下跌的美元 這周，因?yàn)榭深A(yù)見(jiàn)的市場(chǎng)縮小，美元保持了下降的趨勢(shì)。隨著美元匯率下降到二十個(gè)月來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)($1.32比1歐元)，唯一可以算得上令人驚訝的恐怕是對(duì)于美元未來(lái)前景的悲觀預(yù)測(cè)。有充分的理由令人相信美元的下降趨勢(shì)將繼續(xù)下去，甚至打破2004年十二月創(chuàng)造的$1.36比1歐元的歷史最低點(diǎn)。 近期關(guān)于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的大量負(fù)面新聞可以說(shuō)是美元持續(xù)貶值的主要誘因。這一周來(lái)的新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)房市的問(wèn)題對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)了全局性的影響。消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)和耐用品訂單量都顯示了比預(yù)期中更嚴(yán)重的下滑。另一方面，德國(guó)商業(yè)信心指數(shù)創(chuàng)下了歷史新高，而中國(guó)中央銀行的近期言論更令人猜測(cè)其政策開(kāi)始從囤積美元向出售美元傾斜。 但是，運(yùn)用周期性因素去解釋美元在歷史上的上佳表現(xiàn)已經(jīng)被證明是片面的了。美元對(duì)投資者的吸引力很大程度上基于經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)要素--或者更準(zhǔn)確地說(shuō)，投資者對(duì)于美國(guó)和歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)差別的錯(cuò)覺(jué)。 美元過(guò)去強(qiáng)勢(shì)的主因是大多數(shù)投資者認(rèn)為：在近幾年內(nèi)，相對(duì)與其他富裕國(guó)家，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的整體表現(xiàn)十分出眾。但數(shù)據(jù)顯示這種觀念是錯(cuò)誤的。的確，美國(guó)的國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)速度要高于歐洲國(guó)家，但是這主要?dú)w功于美國(guó)快速增長(zhǎng)的人口總量。對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的更深層思考顯示歐美經(jīng)濟(jì)差異并沒(méi)有表面數(shù)據(jù)顯示的那樣大。生產(chǎn)力增長(zhǎng)的官方數(shù)據(jù)雖然在理論上是影響貨幣匯率走向的重要指標(biāo)，但實(shí)際上卻夸大了美國(guó)的領(lǐng)先地位。如果將歐美放在同一指標(biāo)上進(jìn)行忽略其地緣及人口增長(zhǎng)的公平比較，過(guò)去十年里歐美的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)基本上是同樣的。更重要的是，最新的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，當(dāng)前美國(guó)的生產(chǎn)力增長(zhǎng)正在放緩，而歐元區(qū)的生產(chǎn)力增長(zhǎng)則在加速。 因此，和流行的觀念恰恰相反，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)今年的整體表現(xiàn)并不明顯強(qiáng)于歐洲的同期經(jīng)濟(jì)整體表現(xiàn)。同時(shí)，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)含水量豐富。自2000年以來(lái)，美國(guó)的結(jié)構(gòu)性財(cái)政赤字顯著提高(對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期對(duì)財(cái)政狀況的影響進(jìn)行修正后)。同時(shí)，隨著美國(guó)家庭儲(chǔ)蓄率持續(xù)下降，美國(guó)的流動(dòng)資金赤字迅速增長(zhǎng)。而在同一時(shí)期，歐元區(qū)的各經(jīng)濟(jì)體的財(cái)政狀況良好，而家庭儲(chǔ)蓄也基本保持不變。 美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，在過(guò)去的一段時(shí)間里被消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)所拉動(dòng)。而消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)則是建立在儲(chǔ)蓄下降和負(fù)債增多的基礎(chǔ)上的。很明顯，這種形式的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是無(wú)法持久的，而因之造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)以及財(cái)政的不平衡的后果也將不可避免的出現(xiàn)。隨著這種消費(fèi)主因的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的消退，國(guó)家將可能面對(duì)長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩。 就歐洲而言，這塊年邁的大陸被缺乏彈性的產(chǎn)品和勞工市場(chǎng)拖得步履闌珊。但是，雖然聽(tīng)起來(lái)有些荒謬，這種狀況相對(duì)來(lái)說(shuō)可能是一種優(yōu)勢(shì)：它意味著歐洲人有很大的空間去改善他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況。一些歐洲國(guó)家開(kāi)始慎重考慮(并在小范圍內(nèi)試行)他們的下一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)改革。如果這些改革成功，他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將在未來(lái)顯著加快。一旦投資者發(fā)現(xiàn)這點(diǎn)，他們很可能認(rèn)為歐元相比美元將是更加有利的選擇�！� |
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