Federal reserve:Difference of opinion
THE outcome was never in doubt. On December 12th America’s central bank kept shortterm interest rates unchanged at 5.25%. What mattered was the statement accompanying the Federal Reserve’s decision. Although Ben Bernanke and his colleagues gave a nod to the slowing economy (noting that the cooling of the housing market had been “substantial” and that recent economic indicators had been “mixed”), they repeated that they still considered inflation a bigger worry than weak growth.
That is not what Wall Street has been thinking. According to the latest Blue Chip monthly survey, four out of five financial forecasters reckon the central bank’s next move will be to cut the federal funds rate. Some onceoptimistic seers have been busy cutting their growth forecasts. The price of fed-funds futures suggests that financial markets see a 20% chance of lower interest rates by April. This had been close to 70%, but unexpectedly strong growth in jobs and then retail sales in November has caused some in the markets to think a rate cut less likely. The central bankers are simultaneously more cautious and more optimistic than many on Wall Street. With core inflation still well above the 1-2% rate they unofficially deem appropriate, Mr. Bernanke and his colleagues are genuinely worried about price pressure. Although fuel costs have fallen sharply, core consumer prices, which exclude the volatile categories of food and energy, still rose by 2.8% in the year to October. (November’s figures will be released on December 15th.) The Fed’s preferred price gauge, the core personal-consumption deflator, went up by 2.4% in the year to October, only a little short of the fastest pace for a decade. With inflation still too high, cautious central bankers see scant reason for abandoning their hawkish rhetoric.
By the same token, the officials are less concerned by the risk of a slowdown than their counterparts on Wall Street are. Not only do the central bankers expect the economy to grow below its trend rate in the short term; they want it to. That is because a period of belowtrend growth will help dampen inflationary pressure by increasing the amount of slack in the economy. Fed officials worry that labour markets, in particular, are too tight. In their July forecast the central bankers expected an average unemployment rate of between 4.75% and 5% for the fourth quarter of 2006 and 2007, well above today’s 4.5%. Modestly higher joblessness would be welcome. That unemployment has not risen suggests the economy has not slowed much below its trend rate of growth.
If prudence is telling the central bankers to stand pat, so is their optimism. The Fed is not among those who believe that America’s unexpectedly deep housing bust will drag the rest of the economy down. In a recent speech Mr Bernanke made it clear that he saw little sign of the housing recession spreading elsewhere. A stream of weak statistics in subsequent days, particularly a report hinting that manufacturing was in recession, suggested that his optimism might be misplaced.
考研詞匯：
accompany[əˈkʌmpəni]
v.①陪同，伴隨;②為……伴奏
substantial[səbˈstænʃəl]
a.①實(shí)質(zhì)的，真實(shí)的;②堅(jiān)固的，結(jié)實(shí)的;③富裕的;④大的，相當(dāng)可觀的
[真題例句] Supporters of the new super systems argue that these mergers will allow for substantial (④) cost reductions and better coordinated service.[2003年閱讀3]
[例句精譯] 支持組建超大型鐵路集團(tuán)的人認(rèn)為，兼并將帶來成本的大幅降低和服務(wù)項(xiàng)目的更好協(xié)調(diào)。
inflation[inˈfleiʃən]
n.通貨膨脹
[真題例句] The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain.[1997年閱讀5]
[例句精譯] 利率和通貨膨脹之間的關(guān)系不確定。
simultaneous[ˌsiməlˈteiniəs, ˌsai-]
a.同時(shí)的，同時(shí)存在的
exclude[ikˈsklu:d]
v.拒絕，把……排除在外，排斥
[真題例句] This definition excludes many individuals usually referred to as intellectuals—the average scientist for one. [2006年翻譯]
[例句精譯] 這些定義排除了許多通常被稱作知識分子的人——比如普通科學(xué)家。
slack[slæk]
a.①懈怠的，懶散的，松弛的，不緊的;②蕭條的;n.①淡季，蕭條;②[pl.]便褲，運(yùn)動(dòng)褲;v.松弛，放松
[真題例句] Economists have been particularly surprised by favourable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America’s, have little productive slack (n.①).[1997年閱讀5]
[例句精譯] 經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對英美兩國有利的通脹率感到特別詫異，因?yàn)閭鹘y(tǒng)的計(jì)量方法表明兩國經(jīng)濟(jì)，特別是美國經(jīng)濟(jì)，幾乎沒有生產(chǎn)蕭條的時(shí)候。
[真題例句] Indeed, if he has a reputation for slacking (v.), you might even be outraged.[2005年閱讀1]
[例句精譯] 事實(shí)上，如果他還有偷懶怠工的名聲，你可能會(huì)暴怒的。
背景常識介紹：
很多跡象表明，一旦美聯(lián)儲聲明顯示出其緊縮周期已經(jīng)正式結(jié)束，而且可能開始降息，美元有可能大幅下挫;即使聲明內(nèi)容保持不變，美元仍有可能走軟，這主要是因?yàn)槊缆?lián)儲的立場將與其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體，如央行特別是歐洲央行，持有的強(qiáng)硬立場有所不同。
參考譯文：
美聯(lián)儲：各抒己見
12月12日美國央行決定保持短期利率(5.25%)不變，這個(gè)結(jié)果早在意料之中。與此同時(shí)美聯(lián)儲發(fā)表的聲明顯得更為重要。雖然本·伯南克及其同仁(注意到房地產(chǎn)市場“顯著”降溫，近期的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)“喜憂參半”)已承認(rèn)經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡，他們重申，通貨膨脹比疲軟的經(jīng)濟(jì)更令人擔(dān)憂。
華爾街所見不同。根據(jù)最新的每月藍(lán)籌股調(diào)查表明，五位金融預(yù)報(bào)員中就有四位認(rèn)為央行的下一步舉措將降低聯(lián)邦基金利率。一些一度十分樂觀的觀察者們現(xiàn)在忙于降低他們對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的預(yù)期。聯(lián)邦基金期貨的價(jià)格顯示，金融市場認(rèn)為四月前降息的可能性為20%。這一可能性曾經(jīng)一度接近70%，但就業(yè)率以及之后11月的零售額出人意料地上升，引起了一些市場分析人士認(rèn)為降低利率已不太可能。
與許多華爾街人士相比，美聯(lián)儲更加謹(jǐn)小慎微，同時(shí)也更加樂觀。核心通脹率仍比他們的非官方默認(rèn)值(1—2%)高出好些，伯南克及其同仁著實(shí)為價(jià)格壓力捏了一把汗。雖然燃料價(jià)格大幅下降，核心消費(fèi)品價(jià)格(不包括波動(dòng)較大的食品和能源類)到今年10月份仍上升了2.8%。(十一月的數(shù)據(jù)將于12月15日發(fā)布。) 美聯(lián)儲偏愛的價(jià)格量尺，核心個(gè)人消費(fèi)支出平減指數(shù)，到今年10月份上升了2.4%，與十年來的峰值只差一步之遙。通脹率持續(xù)過高，謹(jǐn)慎的美聯(lián)儲更沒有什么理由放棄他們的鷹派作風(fēng)。
同樣，政府官員對可能出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡，沒有華爾街人士那么憂心忡忡。美聯(lián)儲不僅預(yù)測到經(jīng)濟(jì)增長會(huì)在短期內(nèi)低于趨勢水平，他們的希望也正是如此。這是因?yàn)橐欢螘r(shí)期的低于趨勢水平的增長將使經(jīng)濟(jì)更加松弛，從而有助于緩解通貨膨脹的壓力。美聯(lián)儲官員尤其擔(dān)心勞動(dòng)力市場過于緊張。央行7月預(yù)計(jì)2006年最后一個(gè)季度及2007年的平均失業(yè)率在4.75%到5%之間，明顯高于現(xiàn)在的4.5%。適當(dāng)高的失業(yè)率是有好處的。失業(yè)率沒有上升顯示，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度比趨勢水平低，但差距不是太大。
如果出于對通貨膨脹的警惕,聯(lián)儲蓄要做出強(qiáng)硬的態(tài)度,那么他們的樂觀大概也是這個(gè)原因。有人認(rèn)為美國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的意外破產(chǎn)會(huì)拖累整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體，美聯(lián)儲并非其中之一。伯南克在最近的一次講話中明確指出，他未見房地產(chǎn)市場蕭條有任何擴(kuò)散到其他行業(yè)的跡象。之后數(shù)日，一連串不盡如人意的數(shù)據(jù)，尤其一份暗示制造業(yè)陷入低迷的報(bào)告，都說明他的樂觀情緒放錯(cuò)了地方。
