Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?
　　 The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term。
　　 Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past。
　　 Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (inconstant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed。
　　 One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%， and in 1979 by almost 30%。
　　 31. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is
　　 [A]global inflation.
　　 [B]reduction in supply。
　　 [C]fast growth in economy.
　　 [D]Iraq's suspension of exports。
　　 32. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if
　　 [A]price of crude rises.
　　 [B]commodity prices rise。
　　 [C]consumption rises.
　　 [D]oil taxes rise。
　　 33. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries
　　 [A]heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive。
　　 [B]income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices。
　　 [C]manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed。
　　 [D]oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP。
　　 34. We can draw a conclusion from the text that
　　 [A]oil-price shocks are less shocking now。
　　 [B]inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks。
　　 [C]energy conservation can keep down the oil prices。
　　 [D]the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry。
　　 35. From the text we can see that the writer seems
　　 [A]optimistic.
　　 [B]sensitive.
　　 [C]gloomy.
　　 [D]scared。

　　 名師解析
　　 31. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is 比較近的油價上漲的主要原因是
　　 [A]global inflation. 全球通貨膨脹。
　　 [B]reduction in supply。供應(yīng)量減少。
　　 [C]fast growth in economy. 快速的經(jīng)濟增長。
　　 [D]Iraq's suspension of exports. 伊拉克暫時停止石油出口。
　　【答案】 B
　　【考點】 事實細節(jié)題。
　　【分析】 根據(jù)題干可以定位到第一段的第二句話“Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December�！�，說明由于石油輸出國決定降低供給量，使得油價上升。所以本題的答案是[B]。[D]不是該現(xiàn)象的主要原因，因為“OPEC”的相關(guān)決定才是能夠影響石油價格的走勢的主要原因。
　　 32. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if
　　 從文中可以推斷出，如果________，汽油的零售價格將會劇烈上升。
　　 [A]price of crude rises. 原油價格上升。
　　 [B]commodity prices rise. 日用品價格上升。
　　 [C]consumption rises. 消費上升。
　　 [D]oil taxes rise. 油稅上升。
　　【答案】 D
　　【考點】 推斷題。
　　【分析】 根據(jù)題干可以定位到第三段的第三句話“In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price，so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past。.”意思是說“在歐洲，稅占汽油的零售價的五分之四，因此相比以往，原油的價格變化對汽油的影響不會很明顯”。也就是說稅的增加會導(dǎo)致汽油價格的猛漲，而原油價格的變化帶來的影響不會很大。本題一個理解的難度是“muted effect”，另外一個是“pump price”�！癿ute”表示“啞巴的，無聲的，沉默的”，和“effect”連用，表示“影響不明顯”;而“pump price”是一個很形象的說法，“pump”指的是“泵”，這里很形象用“pump”指代“汽油”。根據(jù)上述分析，可以得出答案是[D]。
　　 33. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries
　　《經(jīng)濟展望》的評估表明在富國
　　 [A] heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive。
　　 重工業(yè)變得更加能源密集型。
　　 [B] income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices。
　　 收入損失主要由于波動的原油價格造成。
　　 [C] manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed。
　　 制造業(yè)面臨嚴(yán)重影響。
　　 [D] oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP。
　　 油價變化對國民生產(chǎn)總值沒有大的影響。
　　【答案】 D
　　【考點】 推斷題。
　　【分析】 根據(jù)本題的關(guān)鍵詞“《經(jīng)濟展望》的估計”可以定位到“The OECD estimates in its latest Economic outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25%-0.5% of GDP。”。也就是說，油價的上漲對GDP 的影響很小，只有“0.25%—0.5%”。因此我們可以得出答案[D]。
　　 34. We can draw a conclusion from the text that 從文中我們可以得出的結(jié)論是
　　 [A] oil-price shocks are less shocking now. 油價沖擊已經(jīng)不再那么駭人聽聞。
　　 [B] inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks. 通貨膨脹看起來和油價沖擊無關(guān)。
　　 [C] energy conservation can keep down the oil prices. 能源儲備能夠使油價下降。
　　 [D] the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry。
　　 原油價格的上升導(dǎo)致重工業(yè)的萎縮。
　　【答案】 A
　　【考點】 文章主旨題。
　　【分析】 本題的幾個選項需要通篇理解。文章第三段指出“油價的經(jīng)濟影響不會那么嚴(yán)重”，作者指出其原因是“原油價格占汽油價格的比例不高，發(fā)達國家對石油的依賴減弱，此次漲價的背景不一樣了”。文章比較后一段說“這次油價上漲與20世紀(jì)70年代的上漲不同，對各國的影響也基本沒有反映出來，連物價基本都沒有變動”，也就是說，油價沖擊已經(jīng)不是那么可怕。所以答案是[A]。
　　 35. From the text we can see that the writer seems 從本文中我們可以看出作者看上去是
　　 [A] optimistic. 樂觀的。 [B] sensitive。敏感的。
　　 [C] gloomy. 沮喪的。 [D] scared�？謶值摹�
　　【答案】 A
　　【考點】 作者態(tài)度題。
　　【分析】 本文作者主要講的就是這次油價上漲的影響不大。尤其是第三段和比較后一段的第一句話，強調(diào)人們不必擔(dān)心此次油價上漲，因為這一次的情況與“20世紀(jì)70年代”不同。由此可見作者的態(tài)度是“樂觀的”。

　　 難句解析：
　　 1. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short time。
　　【結(jié)構(gòu)分析】 本句的主語是“Strengthening economic growth”，謂語是“could push”，插入成分是一個時間狀語，其中有一個“as”引導(dǎo)的定語從句，修飾“time”。
　　 2. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP。
　　【結(jié)構(gòu)分析】 本句的主句是“The OECD estimates... that…”，“if”引導(dǎo)一個條件狀語，“compared with $13 in 1998”是過去分詞短語做比較狀語，主句是“this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP”，其中的主語“this”指代的是“if”條件句。
　　 3.One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand。
　　【結(jié)構(gòu)分析】 本句的主干是“One more reason is that.。.”。在“that”引導(dǎo)的表語從句中，它的主語是“it”，指代的是“the rise in oil prices”。
　　 全文翻譯：
　　 過去經(jīng)濟衰落的糟糕日子會不會重來?自從石油輸出國組織在3月同意減少原油供應(yīng)，原油的價格已經(jīng)從去年12月的不到10美元一桶上升到約26美元一桶。這次近3倍的漲價令人想起了1973年的恐慌，當(dāng)時油價上漲了4倍;以及1979―1980年的那一次，當(dāng)時的油價也上漲了近3倍。前兩次的石油恐慌都導(dǎo)致了兩位數(shù)的通貨膨脹和全球性的經(jīng)濟衰退。那么這次警告人們厄運來臨的頭版新聞都到哪里去了呢?
　　 本周伊拉克暫停石油出口，這又一次推動著油價上揚。強勁的經(jīng)濟增長勢頭，加上北半球冬季的到來，有可能在短期內(nèi)使石油價格漲得更高。
　　 然而，我們有充分的理由預(yù)期這次油價暴漲帶來的經(jīng)濟影響不會像70年代那么嚴(yán)重。現(xiàn)在多數(shù)國家的原油價格占汽油價格的份額比70年代要小很多。在歐洲，稅占了汽油零售價的4/5，因此，即使原油價格發(fā)生很大的波動，汽油價格所受的影響也不會像過去那么顯著。
　　 發(fā)達國家對石油的依賴也比從前要少得多，因此對油價的波動也就不會那么敏感。能源儲備、燃料替代以及能源密集型重工業(yè)的重要性的降低，都減少了石油消耗。軟件、咨詢及移動通訊消耗的石油，比鋼鐵、汽車行業(yè)少得多。發(fā)達國家國民生產(chǎn)總值中每一個美元所消耗的石油量比1973年少了近一半。國際經(jīng)合組織在其比較近一期的《經(jīng)濟展望》中估計，如果全年油價均價22美元左右，與1998年的13美元一桶相比，這僅僅會使發(fā)達國家的石油進口在支出上增加GDP的0.25%―0.5%。這還不到1974年或1980年收入損失部分的1/4。另一方面，由于重工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移至一些新興石油進口國，它們對能源可能更加敏感，也更可能會受到強烈影響。
　　 另外一個不應(yīng)因油價上升而失眠的原因是，與70年代的上漲不同，這次油價上升的大背景不是普遍的物價暴漲及全球過旺的需求。世界上很多地區(qū)才剛剛走出經(jīng)濟衰落�！督�(jīng)濟學(xué)家》的商品價格指數(shù)一年來總的來說沒有什么變化。1973年的商品價格躍升了70%，而1979年也上升了近30%。