Car retailing
　　 If there was ever an industry vulnerable to technological change, it would have to be selling cars in America. For decades a franchise network made up of thousands of dealers has peddled ordinary cars as though they were exotic goods in a Moroccan souk. Each dealer seems to have his own opaque pricing scheme, consumers have to endure endless haggling and the financing is murky at best. Small wonder, then, that the shifty car salesman has became such a stereotype.
　　 A decade ago a few brave souls tried to use the emerging power of the internet to modernise this fragmented and frustrating business. Scott Painter, a Californian entrepreneur, founded Cars Direct in an attempt to sell vehicles direct to consumers online. But the business failed to work as he had hoped, and he eventually left the company.
　　 Hope springs eternal, at least where the internet is concerned. This week Mr. Painter is launching Zag, his latest attempt to modernise automobile retailing using the internet. His first big customer is Capital One, a financial giant that is one of the country’s biggest providers of car loans. Meanwhile, Auto Nation, the country’s largest car retailer (with over 300 dealerships), is launching Smart Choice, its own internet marketing�瞫cheme, in June.
　　 So is the time finally ripe? Glenn Mercer of McKinsey, a consultancy, believes that internet sales efforts, even fixed price schemes, will not save customers much money because the internet firms by law cannot buy cars directly from manufacturers; they must get them from dealers. Brian Reed of Capital One retorts: "It’s true, we may not offer the lowest price�瞓ut we will offer a fair price with a lot less pain."
　　 But the pain is not always so easy to escape. Visit many online sites to research a car, and they will sell your name immediately to local dealerships which will then harass you in the old�瞗ashioned way.
　　 Still, there are reasons to think that conditions may finally be favoring online sales. J.D. Power and Associates, a research firm, reckons that two�瞭hirds of new car customers use the internet for research, up from a quarter in 1998. Auto Nation reports that car sales originating on the internet have increased from 14% of its total in 2002 to about a quarter last year. Because price transparency is squeezing margins, argues Sid De Boer of Lithia, one of the country’s biggest car retailers, dealers are now desperate to find ways that the internet can help them. He is convinced that online sales of new cars will soar from nothing to a quarter of Lithia’s total within a decade.
　　 So will all this mean the death of the salesman? Do not count on it says Mike Jackson, the boss of Auto Nation. His firm has already cut in half the time taken to buy a car, and it wants to cut it in half again by automating various bits of paperwork. But Mr. Jackson is convinced that consumers will always want to kick the tyres on their new car, before they sign on the dotted line: We’ll put the distasteful parts online, and leave the fun part-it’s like going to a candy store. 
　　 Endure
　　 v.忍受，持久，持續(xù)
　�。壅骖}例句］ "In Japan,"says educator Yoko Muro, "it�餾 never a question of whether you enjoy your job and your life, but only how much you can endure." ［2000年閱讀4］
　�。劾�句精譯］ "在日本，"教育家 Yoko Muro說，"問題絕對不是你是否喜歡自己的工作和生活，而是你能承受多大的負(fù)荷。"
　　 Eventually
　　 ad.終于，比較后
　　［真題例句］ Over billions of years, the gas was compressed by gravity into galaxies, stars, plants and eventually, even humans.［1998年翻譯］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 數(shù)十億年來，這種氣體受引力的壓縮形成星系、恒星，甚至產(chǎn)生人類。
　　 Attempt
　　 v.（to）嘗試，試圖；n.（at）企圖，努力
　�。壅骖}例句］ Their methods do not attempt (v.) to estimate the actual biomass (the amount of living biological matter) of fish species in particular parts of the ocean, but rather changes in that biomass over time.［2006年閱讀3］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 他們的方法不是試圖估計出在特定海洋區(qū)域中實際的單位魚類生物數(shù)量，而是這一數(shù)量隨著時間有什么變化。
　　 Squeeze
　　 v.壓榨，擠；n.榨取，勒索
　�。壅骖}例句］ On the other hand, oil�瞚mporting emerging economies-to which heavy industry has shifted-have become more energy�瞚ntensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed (v.).［2002年閱讀3］
　　［例句精譯］ 另一方面，進口石油的新興國家由于轉(zhuǎn)向了重工業(yè)，消耗能量更大，因此可能會受到石油危機的強烈影響。
　　 Soar
　　 v.高飛，驟升，劇增；n.高漲程度
　�。壅骖}例句］ They�餽e all groaning about soaring (v.) health budgets, the fastest�瞘rowing components of which are pharmaceutical costs.［2005年新題型］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 他們抱怨高漲的健康預(yù)算，藥價太高是其中非常重要的一個方面。
　　 Convince
　　 v.（of）使信服，使確信
　�。壅骖}例句］ The measure passed by the convincing vote of 15 to 10.［1997年閱讀1］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 這一法案以令人信服的15票對10票通過。
　　 Little Tips:
　　 比較初那些關(guān)于在線零售的種種錯誤觀念現(xiàn)在被完全摒棄了。人們曾經(jīng)認(rèn)為，在線零售能消除中間商，無需倉庫和存貨就可以將商品直接銷售給顧客，這也是CEO們宣稱它將取代傳統(tǒng)零售業(yè)的主要原因。幾年前，絕大部分的在線零售商都是建立在這種模式之上的。那些具有網(wǎng)絡(luò)、商店和目錄銷售的多渠道零售公司將是在線零售的比較大贏家。也就是說，網(wǎng)絡(luò)將只是作為多渠道銷售策略中的一個部分，而不會取代傳統(tǒng)銷售渠道。許多顧客在通過電話或到商店購物之前都習(xí)慣先到網(wǎng)站上去查詢相關(guān)的產(chǎn)品和價格信息。只有那些具有多個銷售渠道的公司才能夠從這種趨勢中獲益。不動產(chǎn)銷售和汽車銷售商這些似乎和在線零售沒有任何關(guān)系的企業(yè)正在獲益匪淺。研究表明，在美國，76％的顧客在購買新車時都先在網(wǎng)絡(luò)上瀏覽相關(guān)信息，然后再到代理商處購買汽車，但很少有人會直接在網(wǎng)上購買汽車。
　　 汽車零售業(yè)
　　 如果說有哪個行業(yè)很容易為技術(shù)革新所損害，那么這個行業(yè)無疑就是美國的汽車銷售業(yè)了。經(jīng)過幾十年的發(fā)展，一個由數(shù)千名經(jīng)銷商所組成的特許經(jīng)營網(wǎng)絡(luò)已經(jīng)成熟到可以像商人在摩洛哥露天廣場兜售異域商品一樣銷售普通汽車。每個經(jīng)銷商看上去都有自己的暗箱定價策略，消費者只能忍受無休止的討價還價而且比較好不要讓銷售者知道他們的籌資渠道。正因如此，難怪"不值得信賴"會成為汽車經(jīng)銷商在人們心中根深蒂固的形象。
　　 大約十年前，一些勇敢的先行者嘗試?yán)�用新生的網(wǎng)絡(luò)力量來使這個支離破碎和令人沮喪的行業(yè)趕上現(xiàn)代化的班車。一位加拿大企業(yè)家Scott Painter 建立了一個名為CarsDirect的網(wǎng)站，希望能直接通過網(wǎng)絡(luò)將汽車賣給消費者。但事情并未如他所設(shè)想的那么順利，比較后他只好離開了他所在的公司。
　　 希望總是無窮盡的，至少對網(wǎng)絡(luò)來說是如此。本周Painter先生將發(fā)布他用來推進汽車銷售現(xiàn)代化的比較新網(wǎng)站Zag，他的第一個大顧客是Capital One公司，該公司是美國從事汽車消費信貸的比較大公司之一。同時，美國的比較大汽車零售廠AutoNation（有超過300個品牌的代理權(quán)）也將在六月公布了他們自己的網(wǎng)站Smart Choice,作為他們的網(wǎng)上銷售策略。
　　 時機終于成熟了嗎？麥肯錫咨詢公司的Glenn Mercer認(rèn)為即使是固定價格，通過網(wǎng)絡(luò)所達到的銷售成果也不能為消費者省多少錢，因為根據(jù)美國的法律，網(wǎng)上公司是不能夠直接從汽車廠商那里提貨的，他們所得到的車只能是通過汽車經(jīng)銷商的渠道。Capital One公司的Brian Reed反駁說："的確，我們很難做到比較便宜，但是我們會使消費者不必經(jīng)歷多少苦惱便能獲得一個公平的價格"。
　　 但是這種苦惱不總是那么容易就能逃避的。消費者通過訪問大量的網(wǎng)站去尋找一部車，當(dāng)找到一部合適的車后，網(wǎng)站就會把你引導(dǎo)到當(dāng)?shù)氐慕?jīng)銷商那里，這又會讓你重回到以前那種購車模式所帶來的痛苦中去。
　　 不過，仍然有理由相信情況比較終將會趨向于對網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售有利的方向發(fā)展。一個名為J.D. Power&Associates的調(diào)研公司，通過統(tǒng)計得出了三分之二的新車購買者通過網(wǎng)絡(luò)研究有關(guān)資料的結(jié)論。而這個數(shù)字在1998年只有四分之一。AutoNation公司也稱現(xiàn)在的汽車銷售總額中有四分之一是來源于網(wǎng)絡(luò)，相比之下，這個數(shù)字在1998年也只有14%.
　　 Lithia公司（美國的比較大經(jīng)銷商之一）的Sid DeBoer認(rèn)為，價格的透明化會把經(jīng)銷商的邊際利潤擠干，所以現(xiàn)在經(jīng)銷商正在不顧一切地從網(wǎng)絡(luò)尋找對他們有利的方法改進。他深信新車網(wǎng)上汽車交易在十年內(nèi)將會由近乎零提升到接近公司銷售總額的15%.
　　 這些是否都意味著經(jīng)銷商將日薄西山呢？別指望那會發(fā)生，AutoNation的老板Mike Jackson說。他的公司已經(jīng)把購買一輛汽車的時間縮短了一半，而且還在打算通過使各種文書工作自動化來把時間再縮短一半。但是Jackson先生確信消費者總是想在比較終決定簽下買車協(xié)定之前用腳踢一下他們的新車的輪胎，引用車主的話說就是："我們把令人不快的部分留在網(wǎng)上，而把有趣的部分留下來--就像去糖果店一樣"。

　Chain reaction
　　"The great manufacturers in the Yorkshire and Lancashire districts tell me that, under modern conditions, they have got into the habit of laying in supply not for a period of two to five months but they are dependent week by week on the importation of the raw material." So Sir George Parkin described the alarming business practices found in Britain at the dawn of the 20th century. As a leader of the Imperial Federation League, he sought to replace the British empire with a bigger group of trading partners, so as to guarantee supplies. A hundred years on, Sir George would have marvelled at globalisation, but been aghast that today’s manufacturers measure their inventories in only a few hours of production.
　　The great manufacturers now have amazingly lean operations. They have outsourced business to contractors that can do the work more efficiently, often in places where wages are lower. A huge logistics industry has sprung up to move stuff around the world at dazzling speed.
　　Contain erisation has slashed the cost of shipping. Express air�瞗reight has made overnight delivery possible to most places on earth. Moreover, such services are within the grasp not just of the supply departments of giant multinationals but also of anyone trading on eBay from the spare bedroom.
　　The logistics business is one of the marvels of commerce, but it is not without its risks. Supply chains have become ever more complex and extended. Some great manufacturers and great service companies may have become too lean in their relentless drive to reduce costs, outsourcing not just their non�瞔ore activities but essential ones too. If one link of a company’s supply chain snaps, the consequences can be grave. Ericsson and Nokia found this out when they both relied on the same supplier for a special chip in their mobile phones. After the chipmaker’s factory was hit by lightning, Nokia swiftly locked up all the alternative supplies whereas Ericsson suffered a severe parts shortage and later quit making handsets on its own.
　　A company’s best protection from its own supply chain is to expect failure, not to hide from it. Toyota last year narrowly escaped a parts shortage when an American supplier went bankrupt. The carmaker has now introduced an early�瞱arning system in Europe to try to detect any looming problems with suppliers before they bring production lines to a halt.
　　The good news is that many companies are now trying to identify the choke points and weak links in their supply chains. What about Sir George’s concern-the wider threat to national economies? With so many people worrying about oil supplies and a bird�瞗lu pandemic, the prospect of supply chains collapsing around the world can seem a scary idea.
　　It shouldn’t be. There are a few industries where it makes sense for governments to keep some emergency stocks of a few essentials such as energy, munitions and medicines. But the logistical apocalypse is not a good way for politicians to think about everyday life, let alone to start interfering in markets.
　　Natural disasters are not, in fact, a common cause of supply�瞔hain disruptions. Most are the result of humdrum internal problems, like bad planning or the choice of an unreliable sub�瞔ontractor. That can be terrible for a particular company, but hardly poses a threat to society at large. After all, if Ericsson and Nokia cannot supply you with a mobile phone, Samsung would be only too happy to get one to you tomorrow.
　　aghast
　　a.驚駭?shù)? 嚇呆的
　　grasp
　　v./n. ①抓住，抓緊；②掌握，領(lǐng)會
　�。壅骖}例句］ Intelligence seeks to grasp (②), manipulate, re�瞣rder, and adjust, while intellect examines, ponders, wonders, theorizes, criticizes and imagines.［2004年閱讀4］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 智力尋求的是理解、運用、整合和調(diào)節(jié)，而才學(xué)則是審視、思考、探究、形成理論、批判和想像。
　　chain
　　n.鏈（條）；［pl.］鐐銬；一連串，一系列，連鎖；v.用鏈條拴住
　　grave
　　n.墳?zāi)�；a.嚴(yán)肅的，莊重的
　�。壅骖}例句］ Lots of Americans bought that nonsense, and over three decades, some 10 million smokers went to early graves (n.).［2005年閱讀2］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 竟然有許多美國人買這些謬論的帳，30年來，大約有一千萬煙民早早就進了墳?zāi)埂?br />　　pandemic
　　a.全國流行的
　　interfere
　　v.①（in）干涉，干預(yù)；②（with）妨礙，打擾
　　［真題例句］ It also means that governments are increasingly compelled to interfere (①) in these sectors in order to step up production and ensure that it is utilized to the best advantage.［2000年翻譯］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 這也意味著：政府不得不逐漸加大對這些部門的干預(yù)力度，以便提高生產(chǎn)率，確保其發(fā)揮比較佳效益。
　　［真題例句］ The words used by the speaker may (44：stir up) unfavorable reactions in the listener (45：which) interfere (②) with his comprehension; hence, the transmission�瞨eception system breaks down .［1994年完形］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 說話的人所采用的言語可能激起了聽者不愉快的反應(yīng)，這種反應(yīng)阻止了他的進一步理解；因此，傳輸�步邮障到y(tǒng)就終止了。
　　internal
　　a.①內(nèi)部的，內(nèi)的；②國內(nèi)的，內(nèi)政的
　�。壅骖}例句］ (72) Interest in historical methods has arisen less through external challenge to the validity of history as an intellectual discipline and more from internal (①) quarrels among historians themselves.［1999年翻譯］
　�。劾�句精譯］ （72）人們之所以關(guān)注歷史研究的方法論，主要是因為史學(xué)界內(nèi)部意見不一，其次是因為外界并不認(rèn)為歷史是一門學(xué)問。
　　Little Tips:
　　雖然國際化的經(jīng)濟活動已有久遠(yuǎn)的歷史，但是經(jīng)濟生產(chǎn)全球化卻是一個嶄新的現(xiàn)象。如今，全球工業(yè)生產(chǎn)成為一個由許多跨越國境的經(jīng)濟活動環(huán)節(jié)內(nèi)在地聯(lián)結(jié)起來的過程。而物流業(yè)在這里面起了十分重要的作用。物流業(yè)是為保證貨物在生產(chǎn)過程中移動迅速，周轉(zhuǎn)期短，交貨準(zhǔn)時可靠而提供的服務(wù)。
　　連鎖反應(yīng)
　　20世紀(jì)初期，英國的George Park先生曾經(jīng)有過這樣的商業(yè)情景描述：約克夏郡和蘭開夏郡的大制造商們告訴我，在現(xiàn)在的條件下，他們已經(jīng)養(yǎng)成了以周為周期采購原材料的習(xí)慣，而不是像原來那樣以2��5個月作為原材料采購周期。作為IFL（皇家聯(lián)盟集團）的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，他尋求在大英帝國的基礎(chǔ)上建立一個更加廣泛的貿(mào)易伙伴聯(lián)盟，以保障供應(yīng)。一百年過去了，如果George先生還活著，他在驚嘆全球化的同時，必然更加震驚于當(dāng)今的制造商僅在生產(chǎn)前幾個小時完成庫存準(zhǔn)備工作這個現(xiàn)實。
　　當(dāng)今大制造商的運作模式都非常簡單化。他們將很多工作外包給具有勞動力成本優(yōu)勢且更有效率的承包商。龐大的物流產(chǎn)業(yè)就是在這樣的背景下，以令人震驚的速度在全球運轉(zhuǎn)開來。
　　集裝箱運輸大大降低了運輸成本，航空特快可以使地球上大多數(shù)地點的貨物在一夜間到達。更令人震驚的是，這些服務(wù)并不是大型跨國企業(yè)所獨享的，每個人都可以在自己的臥室通過ebay這樣的交易平臺來獲得這種服務(wù)�！　�
　　物流業(yè)的確是一個商業(yè)奇跡，但它并非沒有風(fēng)險。供應(yīng)鏈變得更加復(fù)雜和冗長。有些大的制造商和服務(wù)供應(yīng)商熱衷于降低成本，不僅把非核心業(yè)務(wù)外包，而且連核心業(yè)務(wù)也不放過。如果企業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈的一個環(huán)節(jié)出現(xiàn)問題，后果可能是非常嚴(yán)重的。愛立信和諾基亞曾經(jīng)依賴于一個相同的芯片供應(yīng)商來生產(chǎn)手機中一種特別的芯片。當(dāng)這個芯片廠由于受到閃電襲擊而意外停產(chǎn)時，諾基亞很快鎖定了替代供應(yīng)商，而愛立信則受到嚴(yán)重?fù)p失，并在不久后放棄了手機的獨立生產(chǎn)。
　　企業(yè)保護供應(yīng)鏈的比較有效辦法就是直面問題，而不是回避問題。去年，豐田汽車就險些因為一家美國供應(yīng)商的破產(chǎn)而遭受打擊，不過目前豐田已經(jīng)在歐洲建立了一個早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，以檢查任何可能引起停產(chǎn)的供應(yīng)鏈問題。 　　
　　好的一面是現(xiàn)在很多企業(yè)都已經(jīng)開始重視供應(yīng)鏈中有可能發(fā)生問題的薄弱環(huán)節(jié)。但是George先生的擔(dān)心，即對整個國民經(jīng)濟的威脅，會不會出現(xiàn)呢？隨著石油供應(yīng)和禽流感疫情的傳播，供應(yīng)鏈崩潰的設(shè)想還是很令人恐慌的。
　　其實沒必要擔(dān)心這些。對于政府來說，只有少數(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)需要進行應(yīng)急儲備，包括能源，軍用物資和醫(yī)藥。但是對物流行業(yè)，則完全沒必要日夜擔(dān)心，更不必干預(yù)其市場運作。
實際上，自然災(zāi)害并不是供應(yīng)鏈斷裂的常見原因。很多情況下，意外都是由于規(guī)劃失誤和選擇了不可靠的分包商等內(nèi)部原因造成的。這對于企業(yè)來說也許是災(zāi)難性的，但不會對整個社會構(gòu)成威脅。畢竟，如果愛立信和諾基亞不生產(chǎn)手機了，三星還是會很樂于為您效勞的。

　Declining populations：Incredible shrinking countries
　　During the second half of the 20th century, the global population explosion was the big demographic bogey. Robert McNamara, president of the World Bank in the 1970s, compared the threat of unmanageable population pressures with the danger of nuclear war. Now that worry has evaporated, and this century is spooking itself with the opposite fear: the onset of demographic decline. 
　　The shrinkage of Russia and eastern Europe is familiar, though not perhaps the scale of it: Russia’s population is expected to fall by 22% between 2005 and 2050, Ukraine’s by a staggering 43%. Now the phenomenon is creeping into the rich world: Japan has started to shrink and others, such as Italy and Germany, will soon follow. Even China’s population will be declining by the early 2030s, according to the UN, which projects that by 2050 populations will be lower than they are today in 50 countries. 
　　Demographic decline worries people because it is believed to go hand in hand with economic decline. At the extremes it may well be the result of economic factors: pessimism may depress the birth rate and push up rates of suicide and alcoholism. But, in the main, demographic decline is the consequence of the low fertility that generally goes with growing prosperity. In Japan, for instance, birth rates fell below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman in the mid��1970s and have been particularly low in the past 15 years.
　　But if demographic decline is not generally a consequence of economic decline, surely it must be a cause? In a crude sense, yes. As populations shrink, GDP growth will slow. Some economies may even start to shrink, too. The result will be a loss of economic influence.
　　Governments hate the idea of a shrinking population because the absolute size of GDP matters for great�瞤ower status. The bigger the economy, the bigger the military, the greater the geopolitical clout: annual GDP estimates were first introduced in America in the 1940s as part of its war effort. Companies worry, too: they do not like the idea of their domestic markets shrinking. People should not mind, though. What matters for economic welfare is GDP per person.
　　The crucial question is therefore what the effect of demographic decline is on the growth of GDP per person. The bad news is that this looks likely to slow because working�瞐ge populations will decline more rapidly than overall populations. Yet this need not happen. Productivity growth may keep up growth in GDP per person: as labour becomes scarcer, and pressure to introduce new technologies to boost workers’ efficiency increases, so the productivity of labour may rise faster. Anyway, retirement ages can be lifted to increase the supply of labour even when the population is declining.
　　People love to worry-maybe it’s a symptom of ageing populations-but the gloom surrounding population declines misses the main point. The new demographics that are causing populations to age and to shrink are something to celebrate. Humanity was once caught in the trap of high fertility and high mortality. Now it has escaped into the freedom of low fertility and low mortality. Women’s control over the number of children they have is an unqualified good-as is the average person’s enjoyment, in rich countries, of ten more years of life than they had in 1960. Politicians may fear the decline of their nations’ economic prowess, but people should celebrate the new demographics as heralding a golden age. 
　　Pressure
　　n.①壓（力）；②強制，壓迫，壓強；v.強制，迫使
　�。壅骖}例句］ They can hope that, if one province includes a drug on its list, the pressure (n.①) will cause others to include it on theirs.［2005年新題型］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 他們可能會認(rèn)為如果一個省把一種藥包括在一個藥品名錄單上，就會迫使其他省把這種藥也包括在藥品名錄單上。
　　opposite
　　a.（to）對面的，對立的，相反的；n.對立面，對立物；prep.在......的對面
　　shrink
　　v.①起皺，收縮；②退縮，畏縮
　�。壅骖}例句］ Some huge American industries, such as consumer electronics, had shrunk (①) or vanished in the face of foreign competition.［2000年閱讀1］
　　［例句精譯］ 面對國外競爭，一些大型的美國工業(yè)，如消費電子產(chǎn)業(yè)，已經(jīng)萎縮或漸漸消失。
　　extreme
　　a.①末端的，盡頭的；②極度的，極端的；n.①極端；②比較大程度；③極度（狀態(tài)）
　　［真題例句］ Shippers who feel they are being overcharged have the right to appeal to the federal government�餾 Surface Transportation Board for rate relief, but the process is expensive, time consuming, and will work only in truly extreme (a.②) cases.［2003年閱讀3］ 
　�。劾�句精譯］ 如果客戶感到他們被多收費，他們有權(quán)上訴到聯(lián)邦政府的"陸路運輸委員會"以爭取價格下調(diào)，但這個過程耗財、耗時，并且只有在真正極端特殊的情況下才有作用。
　�。壅骖}例句］ (73) It leads the discussion to extremes (n.①) at the outset: it invites you to think that animals should be treated either with the consideration humans extend to other humans, or with no consideration at all. ［1997年翻譯］
　�。劾�句精譯］ （73）這種說法從一開始就將討論引向兩個極端。它使人們認(rèn)為應(yīng)當(dāng)這樣對待動物：要么像對人類自身一樣關(guān)心體諒，要么完全冷漠無情。
　　prosperity
　　n.繁榮，興旺
　�。壅骖}例句］ Americans stopped taking prosperity for granted.［2000年閱讀1］
　　［例句精譯］ 美國不再視繁榮為理所當(dāng)然之事。
　　Decline
　　v./n. ①下傾，下降，下垂，衰落；②斜面，傾斜；v.拒絕，謝絕
　　［真題例句］ Could the bad old days of economic decline (n.①) be about to return? ［2002年閱讀3］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 過去經(jīng)濟衰落的日子會不會重來？
　　Escape
　　n.逃跑，逃脫；v.逃跑；避開，避免
　　Little Tips:
　　據(jù)《歐洲時報》援引法新社報導(dǎo)，歐洲委員會近日公布的一份研究報告預(yù)測，到2050年，歐洲的人口與1995年的相比，可能會減少13%到22%。保加利亞鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)聯(lián)合會會長鮑里斯拉夫•鮑里索夫15日警告說，保加利亞人口持續(xù)減少，如果政府繼續(xù)忽視這一問題，該國將于本世紀(jì)中葉出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的人口危機。日本的人口老化與生育率低落問題可能對這個全球第二大經(jīng)濟體造成嚴(yán)重打擊，因為工作供養(yǎng)退休老人的年輕人越來越少。人口衰退在目前成為一個全球性問題。
　　衰退的人口：以驚人的速度減小的國家
　　在二十世紀(jì)后半葉，全球人口大爆炸還是令人擔(dān)憂的人口問題。70年代，世界銀行行長Robert McNamara甚至還把人口壓力所帶來的威脅與核戰(zhàn)相提并論，然而在今天看來，這種憂慮已經(jīng)不復(fù)存在了。這個世紀(jì)悄悄過去了，帶給人們的卻是一個恰恰相反的憂慮：人口衰退開始初露端倪。
　　盡管俄羅斯和東歐各國人口遞減的具體比例可能不被知曉，但對這一事實人們已經(jīng)有所了解。實際上，從2005年到2050年，俄羅斯的人口預(yù)計會減少22%，而烏克蘭竟然有43%之多。今天這一現(xiàn)象在發(fā)達國家也悄然出現(xiàn)：日本人口已經(jīng)開始遞減，而其他的一些國家，如：意大利和德國，也將步日本的后塵。聯(lián)合國有關(guān)報告指出，即便是中國，到2030年初期人口也將開始遞減。這份報告同時還指出，到2050年，將有50個國家的人口低于今天的水平。
　　人口的衰退之所以讓人們擔(dān)心，是因為人們相信與之相伴隨的是經(jīng)濟的衰退。進一步來說，我們有理由認(rèn)為人口的衰退是經(jīng)濟因素導(dǎo)致的。因為悲觀會降低出生率卻會提高自殺和酒精中毒的比率。但是，大體上人口降低是由人口出生率過低導(dǎo)致的。而低的人口出生率通常與不斷增進的繁榮相聯(lián)系。比如在日本七十年代中期，出生率降至相當(dāng)于平均每個婦女生2.1個孩子以下，而且在過去的15年里一直明顯的偏低。
　　但是如果人口衰退不是一般意義上的經(jīng)濟衰退所導(dǎo)致的后果，那么它確切地說一定是它的一個原因嗎？在某種不確定的意義上，答案是肯定的。隨著人口的衰退，GDP的增長也將緩慢。一些經(jīng)濟體甚至也開始衰退。其結(jié)果將是經(jīng)濟影響力的喪失。
　　政府不愿意看到人口的收縮，因為GDP的絕對大小關(guān)乎強國的地位。經(jīng)濟越繁榮，軍隊越強大，地緣政治的影響也就越大。比如在四十年代，美國首次把年GDP評估的引入作為其戰(zhàn)爭成就的一部分。公司也不愿看到人口衰退。因為他們不想自己的國內(nèi)市場有所收縮。但普通人對此卻并不關(guān)心，因為關(guān)系他們經(jīng)濟福利的是人均GDP。
　　因此，至關(guān)重要的問題是人口衰退對人均GDP增長的影響是怎樣的。不利的一面是它將減緩人均GDP的增長，因為適宜工作的人口將比總?cè)丝谙陆档母�快一��。然而這也并不一定會發(fā)生。生長率的增長將維持人均GDP的增長。由于勞動者的不足和引進增加工人效率的新技術(shù)的壓力的增大，勞動者的生產(chǎn)率可能會增長得更快。無論怎樣，即使當(dāng)人口正在衰退的時候，我們?nèi)匀豢梢酝ㄟ^提高退休年限的方式來增加勞動力的供給。
　　人們喜歡擔(dān)憂--這可能是上年紀(jì)的人的癥狀--但圍繞著人口衰退的憂愁卻沒有抓住要害。引發(fā)人口老齡化和衰退的新人口問題也有值得慶幸的地方。人類過去掉入高出生率和高死亡率的陷阱，而現(xiàn)在逃到了低出生率和低死亡率的自由之地。女人擁有一種絕對的優(yōu)勢，那就是對自己生孩子的數(shù)量的掌控。在發(fā)達國家，對普通人而言，能比六十年代的人多享受十年的生活也同樣是種絕對優(yōu)勢。政治家可能會擔(dān)心他們國家的經(jīng)濟實力下降。而我們普通人應(yīng)該為新人口問題所預(yù)兆的黃金時代而歡呼。

　　Don’t shoot the messenger
　　They poison the mind and corrupt the morals of the young, who waste their time sitting on sofas immersed in dangerous fantasy worlds. That, at least, was the charge levelled against novels during the 18th century by critics worried about the impact of a new medium on young people. Today the idea that novels can harm people sounds daft. And that is surely how history will judge modern criticism of video games, which are accused of turning young people into violent criminals. This week European justice ministers met to discuss how best to restrict the sale of violent games to children. Some countries, such as Germany, believe the answer is to ban some games altogether. That is going too far.
　　Criticism of games is merely the latest example of a tendency to demonise new and unfamiliar forms of entertainment. In 1816 waltzing was condemned as a "fatal contagion" that encouraged promiscuity; in 1910 films were denounced as "an evil pure and simple, destructive of social interchange"; in the 1950s rock ’n’ roll music was said to turn young people into "devil worshippers" and comic books were accused of turning children into drug addicts and criminals. In each case the pattern is the same: young people adopt a new form of entertainment, older people are spooked by its unfamiliarity and condemn it, but eventually the young grow up and the new medium becomes accepted-at which point another example appears and the cycle begins again.
　　The opposition to video games is founded on the mistaken belief that most gamers are children. In fact, two�瞭hirds of gamers are over 18 and the average gamer is around 30. But the assumption that gamers are mostly children leads to a double standard. Violent films are permitted and the notion that some films are unsuitable for children is generally understood. Yet different rules are applied to games.
　　Aren’t games different because they are interactive? It is true that video games can make people feel excited or aggressive, but so do many sports. There is no evidence that video�瞘aming causes long�瞭erm aggression. 
　　Games ought to be age�瞨ated, just as films are, and retailers should not sell adult�瞨ated games to children any more than they should sell them adult�瞨ated films. Ratings schemes are already in place, and in some countries restrictions on the sale of adult�瞨ated games to minors have the force of law. 
　　Oddly enough, Hillary Clinton, one of the politicians who has led the criticism of the gaming industry in America, has recently come round to this view. Last month she emphasised the need for parents to pay more attention to game ratings and called on the industry, retailers and parents to work together. But this week some European politicians seemed to be moving in the other direction: the Netherlands may follow Germany, for example, in banning some games outright. Not all adults wish to play violent games, just as not all of them enjoy violent movies. But they should be free to do so if they wish.  　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Immerse 
　　v.①使沉浸在；②使浸沒
　　accuse
　　v.（of）控告，譴責(zé)
　　［真題例句］ Historians, especially those so blinded by their research interests that they have been accused of "tunnel method ," frequently fall victim to the "technicist fallacy."［1999年翻譯］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 歷史學(xué)家常常淪為"技術(shù)謬誤"的犧牲品，尤其是那些因研究興趣而失去判斷力、被指控為"井蛙之見"的人。
　　restrict
　　v.抑制，制止
　　［真題例句］ 67. What does the author probably mean by "untaught mind" in the first paragraph?［1994年閱讀5］
　�。跙］ A citizen of a society that restricts personal creativity.
　　［例句精譯］ 67.作者在第一段中提到的untaught mind 指什么？
　�。跙］限制個人創(chuàng)造性的社會中的一員。
　　condemn
　　v.①譴責(zé)，指責(zé)；②判刑，宣告有罪
　�。壅骖}例句］ Over the past century, all kinds of unfairness and discrimination have been condemned (①) or made illegal.［2004年閱讀2］
　　［例句精譯］ 在過去的一個世紀(jì)里各種各樣的不公和歧視遭到了譴責(zé)或被定為非法。
　　interactive
　　a.交互式的
　　［真題例句］ It�餾 an interactive feature that lets visitors�餶ey in job criteria such as location, title, and salary, then E�瞞ails them when a matching position is posted in the database.［2004年閱讀1］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 它("個人搜索代理")的特點是互動，允許訪問者自定求職標(biāo)準(zhǔn)諸如工作地點、職位和薪水，當(dāng)資料庫里出現(xiàn)與個人要求相匹配的工作崗位時它就會通過電子郵件通知求職者。
　　aggressive
　　a.①侵略的，好斗的；②大膽的，積極的
　�。壅骖}例句］ Now it is a social policy, the most important and aggressive (②) promoter of gambling in America is the government.［2006年新題型］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 現(xiàn)在這是一種社會政策，美國賭博業(yè)比較重要的和比較激進的支持者是政府。
　　emphasis
　　n.強調(diào)，重點
　　［真題例句］ By far the worst form of competition in schools is the disproportionate emphasis on examinations.［1995年閱讀4］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 學(xué)校里比較糟糕的競爭形式就是過分強調(diào)考試。 
　　Little Tips:
　　比較近一項調(diào)查顯示，青少年上網(wǎng)仍以玩游戲為主，而且長期沉溺其中會誘發(fā)種種身心健康問題。由中國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)絡(luò)信息中心進行的針對10所大中城市中學(xué)生上網(wǎng)情況的調(diào)查顯示：中學(xué)生上網(wǎng)主要使用的功能分別是網(wǎng)絡(luò)游戲(62%)、網(wǎng)上聊天(54.5%)、發(fā)送電子郵件(48.6%)，用于查資料的時間不到5%。此外，62.9%的中學(xué)生出現(xiàn)了個性化情緒，20%的中學(xué)生有情緒低落和孤獨感，12%的中學(xué)生與家人、朋友疏遠(yuǎn)，5.1%的中學(xué)生身體健康狀況下降，因此青少年使用網(wǎng)絡(luò)的情況急需得到關(guān)注。
電視游戲：不是我的錯
　　它們毒害年輕人的心靈，腐化年輕人的靈魂。正是它們，讓年輕人坐在沙發(fā)上虛度時光，沉浸于危險重重的幻想世界。18世紀(jì)的批評家們對于新媒體對年輕人的沖擊感到憂心忡忡，他們向小說提出了如此的控訴。時至今日，小說害人的說法聽起來已是如此的荒謬。對于當(dāng)今時代那些控訴電視游戲使年輕人變成暴力罪犯的批評者們，歷史比較終也將對他們做出同樣的審判。就在本周，歐洲司法部長舉行會晤，討論如何比較有效地限制暴力游戲?qū)�孩子們的銷售。有些國家，例如德國，相信比較好的方法就是完全禁止某些游戲。這種做法太過火了。
　　有一種趨勢，人們傾向于對新奇陌生的娛樂形式進行妖魔化。對游戲的批評也僅僅是其中的一個比較新實例。在1816年，華爾茲被指責(zé)為鼓勵濫交的"致命傳染病毒"；在1910年，電影被批評為"純粹的邪惡，對社會交際的破壞"；在1950年，搖滾音樂被批評"誘使年輕人產(chǎn)生惡魔崇拜"，漫畫被指控為"誘使兒童成長為癮君子和罪犯"。上述每一個實例都有著相同的模式：年輕人接受了一種新的娛樂形式，年長的人因陌生而受驚，于是對其批評指責(zé)。比較終，年輕人長大成人，于是新媒體被社會承認(rèn)--此時，另一種娛樂形式出現(xiàn)，循環(huán)模式再次開始。
　　調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，對于游戲的敵對，往往是由于一種錯誤的觀念：大部分玩家都是兒童。實際上，三分之二的玩家超過18歲，而且玩家的平均年齡在30歲左右。就算是大部分玩家都是兒童，這里依然存在一個"雙重標(biāo)準(zhǔn)"問題。暴力電影被允許，電影業(yè)中有些不適合兒童觀看的作品，這個概念也被普遍理解。然而對于游戲業(yè)卻采用了不同的規(guī)則。
　　難道游戲就應(yīng)該特殊對待嗎？只因為它們具有"互動性"？電視游戲的確可以讓人激動興奮爭強好勝，別忘了相當(dāng)多的運動也是如此。沒有證據(jù)表明電視游戲?qū)е麻L期的侵犯性。
　　游戲應(yīng)該向電影一樣實行年齡分級制度。零售商被禁止向孩子出售成人電影，對于游戲亦應(yīng)當(dāng)如此。分級制度已經(jīng)付諸實踐，而且在某些國家對于成人游戲的銷售限制還具有法律效力。
　　非常奇怪的是，作為領(lǐng)導(dǎo)批判美國游戲產(chǎn)業(yè)的政客之一希拉里•克林頓，比較近也開始接受這種觀點。在上個月，她強調(diào)了父母關(guān)注游戲分級的重要性，并且號召產(chǎn)業(yè)、零售商、父母三方共同努力。不過本周在歐洲的某些政客似乎選擇了另一個方向：比如說，新西蘭可能會跟隨德國的腳步，完全禁止某些特定游戲。正如不是所有的成年人都喜歡暴力電影一樣，并不是所有的成年人都喜歡暴力游戲。不過如果他們喜歡的話，他們應(yīng)該有選擇的自由。

　Doughnut adjust your set
　　HAVE you ever seen anything on television that made you shout or shake your fist in anger at the screen? Televisions are, of course, unable to respond to such reactions. But that could be about to change. Controlling your television and other home�瞖ntertainment devices using voice commands or gestures is starting to become possible thanks to a new generation of controllers.
　　Consider, for example, the controller that went on sale last month with Nintendo’s Wii games console. In place of the usual (sometimes baffling) combination of buttons and joysticks, the Wii has a motionsensitive controller. The console can determine how the controller is moving in space and what it is pointing at, and uses that information to control what is happening on screen. Depending on the game, the controller becomes a warrior’s sword or a golf club.
　　For some games, the controller connects up via a cable to a second, smaller handset called the "Nunchuk" after the weapon favoured by Bruce Lee in his martial�瞐rts movies (two batons linked by a chain). It is then possible to use one controller for movement, and the other to fire weapons or use items. The number of buttons on both controllers has been reduced to a minimum, as Nintendo hopes to draw in new customers who find existing games consoles too complicated. But whether the Wii will introduce a generation of grandmothers to the joys of karate games remains to be seen.
　　This living room overload is likely to get worse as telecoms operators launch a new generation of television over broadband services, using a technology called IPTV. This will make possible thousands of channels, downloadable programs and films, plus messaging, internet access and games. It will also involve the biggest and most complicated controllers ever seen. "The experience isn’t as good as it could be," says Michael Cai of Parks Associates, a consultancy. So some companies believe a new approach is needed.
　　Other companies have looked at using speech�瞓ased controllers in the living room. One firm, Promptu, developed a voice control system for American cable operators and tested it in conjunction with Motorola, which makes set top boxes. But it has now decided to reposition the technology as a voice�瞓ased navigation system for mobile phones. A simpler approach is taken by the In Voca voice�瞐ctivated remote control. It is a universal remote control that can recognise 50 separate commands spoken by up to four separate users, from "lower volume" to "Cartoon Network".　
　　A recent entry to the field is Apple Computer, a firm renowned for designing elegant, easy�瞭o�瞮se products. In 2007 it will launch a new device, called the iTV, that acts as a bridge between a television and a computer. It has a deliberately simple remote control that, like Apple’s iconic iPod music�瞤layer, involves just one button and one wheel. Steve Jobs, the company’s boss, boasts that it is "very Apple". Might his company be the one to solve the remote　　　　control confusion?
　　respond
　　v.①回答，答復(fù)；②（to）響應(yīng)
　�。壅骖}例句］ An important factor in a market�瞣riented economy is the mechanism by which consumer demands can be expressed and responded (②) to 　　by producers.［1994年閱讀1］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 以市場為導(dǎo)向的經(jīng)濟中的一個重要因素是反映消費者需求以及生產(chǎn)者對消費者需求作出反應(yīng)的機制。
　　command
　　n.①命令，指令；②統(tǒng)帥，指揮（權(quán)）；③掌握，運用能力；v.①命令，要求；②指揮，統(tǒng)帥；③掌握，控制
　�。壅骖}例句］ Celebrate! commanded (v.①) the ads for the arthritis drug Celebrex, before we found out it could increase the risk of heart attacks.［2006年閱讀4］
　　［例句精譯］ "歡慶吧！"宣傳關(guān)節(jié)炎良藥西樂葆的廣告這樣命令道，隨后我們卻發(fā)現(xiàn)它能增加心臟病的發(fā)病率。
　�。壅骖}例句］ Americans no longer expect public figures, whether in speech or in writing, to command (v.③) the English language with skill and gift.Nor do they aspire to such command(n.①) themselves.［2005年閱讀4］
　　［例句精譯］ 美國人不再期望公眾人物在演講或?qū)懽髦畷r可以嫻熟地運用技巧和文采來駕馭英語，而且公眾人物本身也不這樣要求自己。
　　console
　　vt.安慰，藉慰；n.控制臺
　　reduce
　　v.減少，縮��；簡化，還原
　　boast
　　v.（of，about）自夸，夸耀；n.自夸，大話
　�。壅骖}例句］ Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast (v.) about of late.［1997年閱讀5］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 盡管有這么多不利因素，中央銀行家們似乎對近來的形勢有了不少值得夸耀的東西。
　　Navigation
　　n.①航海，航空；②導(dǎo)航，領(lǐng)航
　　remote
　　a.①遠(yuǎn)的，長久的；②偏遠(yuǎn)的，偏僻的；③關(guān)系疏遠(yuǎn)的
　�。壅骖}例句］ Rodriguez notes that children in remote (②) villages around the world are fans of superstars like Arnold Schwarzenegger and Garth Brooks, yet "some Americans fear that immigrant living within the United States remain somehow immune to the nation�餾 assimilative power." ［2006年閱讀1］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 羅德里格茲記錄道，在世界范圍內(nèi)偏遠(yuǎn)村莊里的孩子也崇拜著超級明星，比如阿諾得•施瓦辛格和葛司•布魯克斯。然而"一些美國人害怕在美國居住的移民在某種程度上不會受到民族同化作用。"
　　Little Tips：
　　任天堂"Revolution"系統(tǒng)遙控器終于現(xiàn)身：任天堂未來的"革命"家用控制系統(tǒng)的控制器是只用一只手控制的無線遙控器，用電視旁的兩個小傳感器和內(nèi)置的芯片跟蹤它的位置和方向，允許玩家用物理移動控制器本身來操作屏幕上的動作。例如，你可以橫向移動它來玩擊劍，用腕部動作來玩賽車，或者用它指向目標(biāo)來開槍射擊。
電視遙控器
　　你看電視的時候，是否曾邊看邊大叫？或者怒氣沖沖地對著屏幕揮舞拳頭？現(xiàn)在的電視機當(dāng)然不會對你的舉動有什么反應(yīng)。但這種情形可能會發(fā)生變化了。新一代遙控器出現(xiàn)了，不久以后，你也許能用聲音指令或手勢控制電視機及其他家庭娛樂設(shè)備。
　　拿上月發(fā)售的任天堂Wii游戲機所帶的控制手柄來作例子吧。通常，游戲手柄會由許多按鈕與搖桿（有時能把人搞迷糊）組成，而Wii所帶的卻是一個動作識別手柄。游戲機能測出手柄的移動軌跡，識別手柄指著屏幕上的什么東西，然后根據(jù)得到的信息控制屏幕上的游戲。你手中的手柄是戰(zhàn)士手中之劍還是高爾夫球桿，那就要看你在玩什么游戲了。
　　玩有些游戲時，還可以用線把遙控器接到另一個小一點的手持設(shè)備上，有人叫它Nunchuk，這個名字來自李小龍在武打片里喜歡用的武器（雙截棍）。然后你就可以用一只遙控器控制行動，另一只用來開火或者使用游戲中的物品。任天堂把兩個遙控器上的按鈕數(shù)量都盡可能減少，希望能吸引到一批原來覺得玩游戲太復(fù)雜的新顧客。但Wii會不會讓"祖母級"人群也感受到玩空手道游戲的快樂，現(xiàn)在還無從得知。
　　隨著電信運營商在一種叫IPTV的技術(shù)基礎(chǔ)上推出一系列結(jié)合電視機與寬帶網(wǎng)絡(luò)的新服務(wù)，我們的客廳很可能會變得越來越擁擠嘈雜。此類服務(wù)可能包括幾千個電視頻道、可下載的電視節(jié)目與電影、短信服務(wù)、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)接入與網(wǎng)絡(luò)游戲。遙控器也會相應(yīng)變得比以往更大、更復(fù)雜。Parks Associates咨詢公司的麥克爾•卡爾說，"大家并不會喜歡使用那樣的遙控器。"所以一些公司認(rèn)為要靠新方法來解決這個問題。
　　還有幾家公司則考慮了另一條途徑--在客廳里使用語音控制遙控器。Promptu公司就是其中之一，該公司為美國有線電視運營商研發(fā)出一種語音控制系統(tǒng)，并與制造機頂盒的摩托羅拉公司一同測試了此系統(tǒng)。但Promptu公司現(xiàn)又決定把這項技術(shù)重新定位成一種應(yīng)用于手機的聲控遙控導(dǎo)航系統(tǒng)。而InVoca的聲控遙控器則采取了一種更簡單的方法，這種遙控器幾乎可以運用于所有設(shè)備，能識別4個不同使用者的50條命令--從"降低音量"到"卡通網(wǎng)絡(luò)"。
　　比較近,以產(chǎn)品設(shè)計的易用、別致著稱的蘋果電腦也進入這個領(lǐng)域。2007年該公司將會推出一款叫iTV的新設(shè)備，此設(shè)備能在電視與電腦間起到橋梁的作用。像蘋果的標(biāo)志性產(chǎn)品iPod音樂播放器一樣，iTV的遙控器也有意簡化至只有一個按鈕與一個滾輪。蘋果總裁斯蒂夫•錢伯斯聲稱該產(chǎn)品"非常地蘋果"。蘋果電腦公司能解決遙控器的迷局嗎？