Declining populations：Incredible shrinking countries
　　During the second half of the 20th century, the global population explosion was the big demographic bogey. Robert McNamara, president of the World Bank in the 1970s, compared the threat of unmanageable population pressures with the danger of nuclear war. Now that worry has evaporated, and this century is spooking itself with the opposite fear: the onset of demographic decline.
　　The shrinkage of Russia and eastern Europe is familiar, though not perhaps the scale of it: Russia’s population is expected to fall by 22% between 2005 and 2050, Ukraine’s by a staggering 43%. Now the phenomenon is creeping into the rich world: Japan has started to shrink and others, such as Italy and Germany, will soon follow. Even China’s population will be declining by the early 2030s, according to the UN, which projects that by 2050 populations will be lower than they are today in 50 countries.
　　Demographic decline worries people because it is believed to go hand in hand with economic decline. At the extremes it may well be the result of economic factors: pessimism may depress the birth rate and push up rates of suicide and alcoholism. But, in the main, demographic decline is the consequence of the low fertility that generally goes with growing prosperity. In Japan, for instance, birth rates fell below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman in the mid��1970s and have been particularly low in the past 15 years.
　　But if demographic decline is not generally a consequence of economic decline, surely it must be a cause? In a crude sense, yes. As populations shrink, GDP growth will slow. Some economies may even start to shrink, too. The result will be a loss of economic influence.
　　Governments hate the idea of a shrinking population because the absolute size of GDP matters for great�瞤ower status. The bigger the economy, the bigger the military, the greater the geopolitical clout: annual GDP estimates were first introduced in America in the 1940s as part of its war effort. Companies worry, too: they do not like the idea of their domestic markets shrinking. People should not mind, though. What matters for economic welfare is GDP per person.
　　The crucial question is therefore what the effect of demographic decline is on the growth of GDP per person. The bad news is that this looks likely to slow because working�瞐ge populations will decline more rapidly than overall populations. Yet this need not happen. Productivity growth may keep up growth in GDP per person: as labour becomes scarcer, and pressure to introduce new technologies to boost workers’ efficiency increases, so the productivity of labour may rise faster. Anyway, retirement ages can be lifted to increase the supply of labour even when the population is declining.
　　People love to worry-maybe it’s a symptom of ageing populations-but the gloom surrounding population declines misses the main point. The new demographics that are causing populations to age and to shrink are something to celebrate. Humanity was once caught in the trap of high fertility and high mortality. Now it has escaped into the freedom of low fertility and low mortality. Women’s control over the number of children they have is an unqualified good-as is the average person’s enjoyment, in rich countries, of ten more years of life than they had in 1960. Politicians may fear the decline of their nations’ economic prowess, but people should celebrate the new demographics as heralding a golden age.
　　Pressure
　　n.①壓（力）；②強(qiáng)制，壓迫，壓強(qiáng)；v.強(qiáng)制，迫使
　　［真題例句］ They can hope that, if one province includes a drug on its list, the pressure (n.①) will cause others to include it on theirs.［2005年新題型］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 他們可能會(huì)認(rèn)為如果一個(gè)省把一種藥包括在一個(gè)藥品名錄單上，就會(huì)迫使其他省把這種藥也包括在藥品名錄單上。
　　opposite
　　a.（to）對(duì)面的，對(duì)立的，相反的；n.對(duì)立面，對(duì)立物；prep.在......的對(duì)面
　　shrink
　　v.①起皺，收縮；②退縮，畏縮
　�。壅骖}例句］ Some huge American industries, such as consumer electronics, had shrunk (①) or vanished in the face of foreign competition.［2000年閱讀1］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 面對(duì)國(guó)外競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，一些大型的美國(guó)工業(yè)，如消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)業(yè)，已經(jīng)萎縮或漸漸消失。
　　extreme
　　a.①末端的，盡頭的；②極度的，極端的；n.①極端；②比較大程度；③極度（狀態(tài)）
　�。壅骖}例句］ Shippers who feel they are being overcharged have the right to appeal to the federal government�餾 Surface Transportation Board for rate relief, but the process is expensive, time consuming, and will work only in truly extreme (a.②) cases.［2003年閱讀3］
　　［例句精譯］ 如果客戶感到他們被多收費(fèi)，他們有權(quán)上訴到聯(lián)邦政府的"陸路運(yùn)輸委員會(huì)"以爭(zhēng)取價(jià)格下調(diào)，但這個(gè)過(guò)程耗財(cái)、耗時(shí)，并且只有在真正極端特殊的情況下才有作用。
　�。壅骖}例句］ (73) It leads the discussion to extremes (n.①) at the outset: it invites you to think that animals should be treated either with the consideration humans extend to other humans, or with no consideration at all. ［1997年翻譯］
　�。劾�句精譯］ （73）這種說(shuō)法從一開(kāi)始就將討論引向兩個(gè)極端。它使人們認(rèn)為應(yīng)當(dāng)這樣對(duì)待動(dòng)物：要么像對(duì)人類自身一樣關(guān)心體諒，要么完全冷漠無(wú)情。
　　prosperity
　　n.繁榮，興旺
　�。壅骖}例句］ Americans stopped taking prosperity for granted.［2000年閱讀1］
　　［例句精譯］ 美國(guó)不再視繁榮為理所當(dāng)然之事。
　　Decline
　　v./n. ①下傾，下降，下垂，衰落；②斜面，傾斜；v.拒絕，謝絕
　�。壅骖}例句］ Could the bad old days of economic decline (n.①) be about to return? ［2002年閱讀3］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 過(guò)去經(jīng)濟(jì)衰落的日子會(huì)不會(huì)重來(lái)？
　　Escape
　　n.逃跑，逃脫；v.逃跑；避開(kāi)，避免

　　Little Tips:
　　據(jù)《歐洲時(shí)報(bào)》援引法新社報(bào)導(dǎo)，歐洲委員會(huì)近日公布的一份研究報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)，到2050年，歐洲的人口與1995年的相比，可能會(huì)減少13%到22%。保加利亞鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)聯(lián)合會(huì)會(huì)長(zhǎng)鮑里斯拉夫?鮑里索夫15日警告說(shuō)，保加利亞人口持續(xù)減少，如果政府繼續(xù)忽視這一問(wèn)題，該國(guó)將于本世紀(jì)中葉出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的人口危機(jī)。日本的人口老化與生育率低落問(wèn)題可能對(duì)這個(gè)全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體造成嚴(yán)重打擊，因?yàn)楣ぷ鞴�養(yǎng)退休老人的年輕人越來(lái)越少。人口衰退在目前成為一個(gè)全球性問(wèn)題。
　　衰退的人口：以驚人的速度減小的國(guó)家
　　在二十世紀(jì)后半葉，全球人口大爆炸還是令人擔(dān)憂的人口問(wèn)題。70年代，世界銀行行長(zhǎng)Robert McNamara甚至還把人口壓力所帶來(lái)的威脅與核戰(zhàn)相提并論，然而在今天看來(lái)，這種憂慮已經(jīng)不復(fù)存在了。這個(gè)世紀(jì)悄悄過(guò)去了，帶給人們的卻是一個(gè)恰恰相反的憂慮：人口衰退開(kāi)始初露端倪。
　　盡管俄羅斯和東歐各國(guó)人口遞減的具體比例可能不被知曉，但對(duì)這一事實(shí)人們已經(jīng)有所了解。實(shí)際上，從2005年到2050年，俄羅斯的人口預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)減少22%，而烏克蘭竟然有43%之多。今天這一現(xiàn)象在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家也悄然出現(xiàn)：日本人口已經(jīng)開(kāi)始遞減，而其他的一些國(guó)家，如：意大利和德國(guó)，也將步日本的后塵。聯(lián)合國(guó)有關(guān)報(bào)告指出，即便是中國(guó)，到2030年初期人口也將開(kāi)始遞減。這份報(bào)告同時(shí)還指出，到2050年，將有50個(gè)國(guó)家的人口低于今天的水平。
　　人口的衰退之所以讓人們擔(dān)心，是因?yàn)槿藗兿嘈排c之相伴隨的是經(jīng)濟(jì)的衰退。進(jìn)一步來(lái)說(shuō)，我們有理由認(rèn)為人口的衰退是經(jīng)濟(jì)因素導(dǎo)致的。因?yàn)楸�觀會(huì)降低出生率卻會(huì)提高自殺和酒精中毒的比率。但是，大體上人口降低是由人口出生率過(guò)低導(dǎo)致的。而低的人口出生率通常與不斷增進(jìn)的繁榮相聯(lián)系。比如在日本七十年代中期，出生率降至相當(dāng)于平均每個(gè)婦女生2.1個(gè)孩子以下，而且在過(guò)去的15年里一直明顯的偏低。
　　但是如果人口衰退不是一般意義上的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退所導(dǎo)致的后果，那么它確切地說(shuō)一定是它的一個(gè)原因嗎？在某種不確定的意義上，答案是肯定的。隨著人口的衰退，GDP的增長(zhǎng)也將緩慢。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)體甚至也開(kāi)始衰退。其結(jié)果將是經(jīng)濟(jì)影響力的喪失。
　　政府不愿意看到人口的收縮，因?yàn)镚DP的絕對(duì)大小關(guān)乎強(qiáng)國(guó)的地位。經(jīng)濟(jì)越繁榮，軍隊(duì)越強(qiáng)大，地緣政治的影響也就越大。比如在四十年代，美國(guó)首次把年GDP評(píng)估的引入作為其戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)成就的一部分。公司也不愿看到人口衰退。因?yàn)樗麄儾幌胱约旱膰?guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)有所收縮。但普通人對(duì)此卻并不關(guān)心，因?yàn)殛P(guān)系他們經(jīng)濟(jì)福利的是人均GDP。
　　因此，至關(guān)重要的問(wèn)題是人口衰退對(duì)人均GDP增長(zhǎng)的影響是怎樣的。不利的一面是它將減緩人均GDP的增長(zhǎng)，因?yàn)檫m宜工作的人口將比總?cè)丝谙陆档母�快一��。然而這也并不一定會(huì)發(fā)生。生長(zhǎng)率的增長(zhǎng)將維持人均GDP的增長(zhǎng)。由于勞動(dòng)者的不足和引進(jìn)增加工人效率的新技術(shù)的壓力的增大，勞動(dòng)者的生產(chǎn)率可能會(huì)增長(zhǎng)得更快。無(wú)論怎樣，即使當(dāng)人口正在衰退的時(shí)候，我們?nèi)匀豢梢酝ㄟ^(guò)提高退休年限的方式來(lái)增加勞動(dòng)力的供給。
　　人們喜歡擔(dān)憂--這可能是上年紀(jì)的人的癥狀--但圍繞著人口衰退的憂愁卻沒(méi)有抓住要害。引發(fā)人口老齡化和衰退的新人口問(wèn)題也有值得慶幸的地方。人類過(guò)去掉入高出生率和高死亡率的陷阱，而現(xiàn)在逃到了低出生率和低死亡率的自由之地。女人擁有一種絕對(duì)的優(yōu)勢(shì)，那就是對(duì)自己生孩子的數(shù)量的掌控。在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，對(duì)普通人而言，能比六十年代的人多享受十年的生活也同樣是種絕對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)。政治家可能會(huì)擔(dān)心他們國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力下降。而我們普通人應(yīng)該為新人口問(wèn)題所預(yù)兆的黃金時(shí)代而歡呼。

　　A fuzzy picture
　　"THIS is a really exciting time-a new era is starting," says Peter Bazalgette, the chief creative officer of Endemol, the television company behind "Big Brother" and other popular shows. He is referring to the upsurge of interest in mobile television, a nascent industry at the intersection of telecoms and media which offers new opportunities to device�瞞akers, content producers and mobile�瞡etwork operators.
　　Already, many mobile operators offer a selection of television channels or individual shows, which are "streamed" across their third�瞘eneration (3G) networks. In South Korea, television is also sent to mobile phones via satellite and terrestrial broadcast networks, which is far more efficient than sending video across mobile networks. In Europe, the Italian arm of 3, a mobile operator, recently acquired Canale 7, a television channel, with a view to launching mobile�睺V broadcasts in Italy in the second half of 2006.
　　Meanwhile, Apple Computer, which launched a video�瞔apable version of its iPod portable music�瞤layer in October, is striking deals with television networks to expand the range of shows that can be purchased for viewing on the device, including "Lost", "Desperate Housewives" and "Law & Order".
　　Despite all this activity, however, the prospects for mobile TV are unclear. For a start, nobody really knows if consumers will pay for it, though surveys suggest they like the idea. Informa, a consultancy, says there will be 125m mobile�睺V users by 2010. But many other mobile technologies inspired high hopes and then failed to live up to expectations. And even if people do want TV on the move, there is further uncertainty in two areas: technology and business models.
　　At the moment, mobile TV is mostly streamed over 3G networks. But sending an individual data stream to each viewer is inefficient and will be unsustainable in the long run if mobile TV takes off. So the general consensus is that 3G streaming is a prelude to the construction of dedicated mobile�睺V broadcast networks, which transmit digital TV signals on entirely different frequencies to those used for voice and data. There are three main standards: DVB�睭, favoured in Europe; DMB, which has been adopted in South Korea and Japan; and MediaFLO, which is being rolled out in America. Watching TV using any of these technologies requires a TV�瞔apable handset, of course.
　　In contrast, watching downloaded TV programmes on an iPod or other portable video player is already possible today. And unlike a programme streamed over 3G or broadcast via a dedicated mobile�睺V network, shows stored on an iPod can be watched on an underground train or in regions with patchy network coverage. That suggests that some shows (such as drama) better suit the download model, while others (such as live news, sports or reality shows) are better suited to real�瞭ime transmission. The two approaches will probably co�瞖xist.
　　Just as there are several competing mobile�睺V technologies, there are also many possible business models. Mobile operators might choose to build their own mobile�睺V broadcast networks; or they could form a consortium and build a shared network; or existing broadcasters could build such networks.
　　The big question is whether the broadcasters and mobile operators can agree how to divide the spoils, assuming there are any. Broadcasters own the content, but mobile operators generally control the handsets, and they do not always see eye to eye. In South Korea, a consortium of broadcasters launched a free�瞭o�瞐ir DMB network last month, but the country’s mobile operators were reluctant to provide their users with handsets able to receive the broadcasts, since they were unwilling to undermine the prospects for their own subscription�瞓ased mobile�睺V services.
　　Then there is the question of who will fund the production of mobile�睺V content: broadcasters, operators or advertisers? Again, the answer is probably "all of the above".
　　launch
　　v.①發(fā)射；②使（船）下水；③發(fā)動(dòng)，開(kāi)展；
　　n.發(fā)射，下水
　�。壅骖}例句］The debate was launched (v.③) by the Government, which invited anyone with an opinion of the BBC-including ordinary listeners and viewers-to say what was good or bad about the Corporation, and even whether they thought it was worth keeping.［1996年閱讀2］
　�。劾�句精譯］這場(chǎng)爭(zhēng)論是英國(guó)政府發(fā)起的，它邀請(qǐng)每一位對(duì)BBC有看法的人--包括普通的聽(tīng)眾和觀眾--對(duì)公司好壞進(jìn)行評(píng)論，甚至可以評(píng)論他們是否認(rèn)為公司值得辦下去。
　　inspire
　　v.①鼓舞，激起；②使產(chǎn)生靈感
　　consensus
　　n.（意見(jiàn)等）一致，一致同意
　　［真題例句］ In a draft preface to the recommendations, discussed at the 17 May meeting, Shapiro suggested that the panel had found a broad consensus that it would be "morally unacceptable to attempt to create a human child by adult nuclear cloning."［1999年閱讀4］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 在5月17日會(huì)議上討論的建議序言草案中，夏皮羅表示，專家組已取得廣泛的共識(shí)，認(rèn)為"試圖利用成人細(xì)胞核去克隆嬰兒從道義上講是無(wú)法接受的"。
　　transmit
　　v.①傳播，發(fā)射；②傳遞，傳導(dǎo)
　�。壅骖}例句］ 61. From the passage we can infer that.［1995年閱讀3］
　�。跘］ electronic mail will soon play a dominant role in transmitting (①) messages
　�。劾�句精譯］ 61根據(jù)本文，我們可以推斷出：
　�。跘］電子郵件將很快在信息傳播中起主導(dǎo)作用
　　adopt
　　v.①采用，采納，通過(guò)；②收養(yǎng)
　�。壅骖}例句］ Too many schools adopt (①) the "win at all costs" moral standard and measure their success by sporting achievements.［1995年閱讀4］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 太多的學(xué)校采用"不惜一切代價(jià)獲取成功"的道德標(biāo)準(zhǔn)并通過(guò)炫耀成績(jī)來(lái)估量孩子們是否成功。
　　portable
　　a.輕便的，手提（式）的
　　移動(dòng)電視技術(shù)
　　從目前全球范圍內(nèi)手機(jī)電視的業(yè)務(wù)開(kāi)展來(lái)看，存在兩種比較主要的方式：流媒體和廣播。
　　為了開(kāi)發(fā)手機(jī)電視的市場(chǎng)需求，部分電信系統(tǒng)商已經(jīng)開(kāi)始在手機(jī)上提供電視收視的服務(wù)，
　　這些服務(wù)和傳統(tǒng)電視并不相同，手機(jī)通過(guò)電信網(wǎng)絡(luò)（2.5G/2.75G/3G）連接到媒體服務(wù)器，
　　采用點(diǎn)對(duì)點(diǎn)流媒體方式播放，而非多點(diǎn)式的廣播。但當(dāng)3G的使用越來(lái)越普遍后，利用大量頻率提供廉價(jià)電視內(nèi)容的播放將會(huì)越來(lái)越不經(jīng)濟(jì)，同時(shí)對(duì)大規(guī)模的商業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)在技術(shù)上也相當(dāng)不實(shí)際。手機(jī)電視業(yè)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)是通過(guò)衛(wèi)星或地面數(shù)字廣播來(lái)進(jìn)行傳輸。但是，由于廣播方式可能同時(shí)牽涉到電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商和廣播網(wǎng)絡(luò)運(yùn)營(yíng)商，商業(yè)模式上相對(duì)復(fù)雜，特別是在管制較嚴(yán)的國(guó)家受政策因素的影響較大，制約較多，給商用運(yùn)營(yíng)帶來(lái)一定的難度。
　　移動(dòng)電視正在出現(xiàn)--但是市場(chǎng)將怎樣發(fā)展下去卻仍然不得而知
　　"這真是一個(gè)令人激動(dòng)的時(shí)刻 --一個(gè)新的時(shí)代正在開(kāi)始"，Endemol 電視公司的首席創(chuàng)意官Peter Bazalgette這樣宣稱，他談到了眾人對(duì)移動(dòng)電視的巨大興趣，這是一個(gè)在電信和媒體領(lǐng)域有交叉的新興產(chǎn)業(yè)，給設(shè)備制造商、電視內(nèi)容制作者以及移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)運(yùn)營(yíng)商提供了新的機(jī)遇。
　　許多移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)運(yùn)營(yíng)商已經(jīng)通過(guò)他們的第三代（3G）網(wǎng)絡(luò)用流媒體方式提供了一些電視頻道以及個(gè)人表演。在韓國(guó)，電視節(jié)目也通過(guò)衛(wèi)星和地面廣播網(wǎng)傳送給移動(dòng)電話，這遠(yuǎn)比通過(guò)移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)傳輸視頻更為有效。比較近在歐洲，意大利3G移動(dòng)運(yùn)營(yíng)商買下了一個(gè)電視頻道"第七頻道"，目的是為了2006年下半年在意大利發(fā)射移動(dòng)電視信號(hào)。
　　與此同時(shí)，蘋(píng)果電腦公司在10月發(fā)售了一款可以觀看電視的便攜式音樂(lè)播放器iPod，這個(gè)播放器大大擴(kuò)展了電視網(wǎng)絡(luò)節(jié)目的范圍，其可以供用戶購(gòu)買的、用于在移動(dòng)終端的節(jié)目范圍令人驚奇，包括《迷失》、《絕望的主婦》以及《法律與秩序》。
　　然而，盡管有這么多的商業(yè)行為，移動(dòng)電視的前景依舊是不明朗的。作為一個(gè)開(kāi)端，沒(méi)有人真正清楚消費(fèi)者是否樂(lè)意為它付費(fèi)，即使調(diào)查顯示他們喜歡這個(gè)主意。一個(gè)名為Informa的顧問(wèn)表示到2010年將會(huì)有1.23億移動(dòng)電視用戶。但是有許多其他的移動(dòng)技術(shù)盡管給了人們很高的期待，比較終卻沒(méi)能做出成績(jī)。就算人們真的需要在移動(dòng)中觀看電視，還有兩方面的不確定因素存在著：技術(shù)和商業(yè)模式。
　　在現(xiàn)階段，移動(dòng)電視主要通過(guò)3G網(wǎng)絡(luò)用流媒體方式來(lái)傳送，但是給每一個(gè)觀眾發(fā)送一段單獨(dú)的數(shù)據(jù)流的效果會(huì)很差，而且在長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的運(yùn)動(dòng)中也會(huì)不穩(wěn)定，比如說(shuō)在移動(dòng)電視被關(guān)閉時(shí)。因此大多數(shù)人認(rèn)為3G技術(shù)只是建立起一個(gè)專門(mén)的移動(dòng)電視廣播網(wǎng)絡(luò)的前奏，這個(gè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)以一種全然不同的頻率為使用聲音和數(shù)據(jù)的人傳送數(shù)字電視信號(hào)，主要分為3種：DVB�睭，主要在歐洲受到歡迎；DMB，正在韓國(guó)和日本被采用；以及MediaFLO，已經(jīng)在美國(guó)鋪開(kāi)其網(wǎng)絡(luò)。
　　與此相反，在iPod或其他便攜式視頻播放器上觀看下載的電視節(jié)目已經(jīng)成為可能，而且不像那些通過(guò)3G網(wǎng)絡(luò)或?qū)Ｓ靡苿?dòng)電視網(wǎng)傳送的節(jié)目，人們可以在地鐵里或者網(wǎng)絡(luò)信號(hào)覆蓋不穩(wěn)定的地區(qū)觀看儲(chǔ)存在iPod上的節(jié)目。這說(shuō)明有些節(jié)目（比如戲劇）比較適合用下載的形式，而另一些節(jié)目（比如現(xiàn)場(chǎng)直播新聞、體育節(jié)目或現(xiàn)場(chǎng)節(jié)目）更加適合實(shí)時(shí)播送。這兩種方法有可能共存。
　　就像有幾種互相競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的移動(dòng)電視技術(shù)那樣，同樣存在著幾種可能的商業(yè)模式。移動(dòng)運(yùn)營(yíng)商也許會(huì)選擇建立起他們自己的移動(dòng)電視廣播網(wǎng)；或者他們可以組成聯(lián)盟建立起一個(gè)共享網(wǎng)絡(luò)；或者現(xiàn)有的廣播公司會(huì)建立起類似的網(wǎng)絡(luò)。
　　如果這個(gè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)可以贏利，關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題就是廣播公司能否和移動(dòng)運(yùn)營(yíng)商就如何劃分利益達(dá)成一致。廣播公司擁有節(jié)目?jī)?nèi)容，但掌上終端通常都由移動(dòng)運(yùn)營(yíng)商控制，而且他們并不總是意見(jiàn)一致。在韓國(guó)，廣播公司聯(lián)盟上個(gè)月開(kāi)播了一個(gè)免費(fèi)的DMB網(wǎng)絡(luò)，但是這個(gè)國(guó)家的移動(dòng)運(yùn)營(yíng)商卻并不愿意為他們的用戶提供能夠接收這個(gè)廣播信號(hào)的掌上終端，因?yàn)樗麄儾辉钙茐乃麄冏约簱碛懈顿M(fèi)移動(dòng)電視業(yè)務(wù)的前景。
　　于是，接下來(lái)的問(wèn)題就是誰(shuí)將投資移動(dòng)電視內(nèi)容的制作：廣播公司、運(yùn)營(yíng)商還是廣告商？同樣的，答案很可能是"他們所有人"。

　A meaty questionNO.3
　　IF YOU have ever longed for a meat substitute that smelt and tasted like the real thing, but did not involve killing an animal, then your order could be ready soon. Researchers believe it will soon be possible to grow cultured meat in quantities large enough to offer the meat industry an alternative source of supply.
　　Growing muscle cells (the main component of meat) in a nutrient broth is easy. The difficulty is persuading those cells to form something that resembles real meat. Paul Kosnik, the head of engineering at a firm called Tissue Genesis, is hoping to do it by stretching the cells with mechanical anchors. This encourages them to form small bundles surrounded by connective tissue, an arrangement similar to real muscle.
　　Robert Dennis, a biomedical engineer at the University of North Carolina, believes the secret of growing healthy muscle tissue in a laboratory is to understand how it interacts with its surroundings. In nature, tissues exist as elements in a larger system and they depend on other tissues for their survival. Without appropriate stimuli from their neighbours they degenerate. Dr Dennis and his team have been working on these neighbourly interactions for the past three years and report some success in engineering two of the most important-those between muscles and tendons, and muscles and nerves.
　　At the Touro College School of Health Sciences in New York, Morris Benjaminson and his team are working on removing living tissue from fish, and then growing it in culture. This approach has the advantage that the tissue has a functioning system of blood vessels to deliver nutrients, so it should be possible to grow tissue cultures more than a millimetre thick-the current limit.
　　Henk Haagsman, a meat scientist at the University of Utrecht in the Netherlands, is trying to make minced pork from cultured stem cells with the backing of Stegeman, a sausage company. It could be used in sausages, burgers and sauces.
　　But why would anyone want to eat cultured meat, rather than something freshly slaughtered and just off the bone? One answer, to mix metaphors, is that it would allow vegetarians to have their meatloaf and eat it too. But the sausage�瞞eat project suggests another reason: hygiene. As Ingrid Newkirk of PETA, an animal�瞨ights group, puts it, "no one who considers what’s in a meat hot dog could genuinely express any revulsion at eating a clean cloned meat product."
　　Cultured meat could be grown in sterile conditions, avoiding Salmonella, E. coli, Campylobacter and other nasties. It could also be made healthier by adjusting its composition-introducing heart�瞗riendly omega-3 fatty acids, for example. You could even take a cell from an endangered animal and, without threatening its extinction, make meat from it. Giant�瞤anda steak, anyone?
　　substitute
　　n.代用品，代替品；v.（for）代替，替換
　�。壅骖}例句］ In talking to some scientists, particularly younger ones, you might gather the impression that they find the "scientific method" a substitute (n.) for imaginative thought.［1999年閱讀5］
　　［例句精譯］ 在和一些科學(xué)家，特別是年輕科學(xué)家交談時(shí)，你可能會(huì)有這樣一種印象：他們認(rèn)為"科學(xué)方法"可以代替創(chuàng)造性思維。
　　resemble
　　v.像，類似
　　tissue
　　n.①織物，薄絹，紙巾；②（動(dòng)、植物的）組織
　　stretch
　　v.拉長(zhǎng)，延伸；n.①一段時(shí)間，一段路程；②延伸
　　［真題例句］ It is a remarkable record, stretching (v.) back over 70 years-yet the BBC�餾 future is now in doubt.［1996年閱讀2］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 七十多年來(lái)，BBC可謂歷程輝煌，然而現(xiàn)在，BBC的未來(lái)卻令人疑慮。
　　vessel
　　n.①容器，器皿；②船，艦；③管，血管
　�。壅骖}例句］ Today�餾 vessels (②) can find their prey using satellites and sonar, which were not available 50 years ago.［2006年閱讀3］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 今天的漁船能夠使用五十年前沒(méi)有的衛(wèi)星和聲納來(lái)追蹤他們的獵物。
　　slaughter
　　n.屠宰，殘殺，屠殺；v.屠宰，殘殺，屠殺
　　譯文：
　　荷蘭科學(xué)家取得了一項(xiàng)用細(xì)胞"培育"肉類，并出售給人類食用的計(jì)劃的專利權(quán)。
　　阿姆斯特丹大學(xué)皮膚學(xué)專家維特·韋斯特霍夫稱，可以用在實(shí)驗(yàn)室的培養(yǎng)皿中培育皮膚細(xì)胞的方法來(lái)培育肌肉組織。出售這種在實(shí)驗(yàn)室中培育的肉類將使大量動(dòng)物免遭屠宰。
　　韋斯特霍夫正在尋求投資者。他認(rèn)為，可以在容積為5000升的巨型培養(yǎng)池中培育每塊至少50克的現(xiàn)成瘦肉塊。
　　他和另外兩位商人在全球很多地方都取得了這項(xiàng)計(jì)劃的專利權(quán)。專利證書(shū)稱贊這種肉沒(méi)有脂肪和軟骨。豬、牛、雞、袋鼠和鯨魚(yú)的細(xì)胞全都可以使用。
　　這項(xiàng)計(jì)劃仍需改進(jìn)，因?yàn)槠�今的試�?yàn)結(jié)果顯示，細(xì)胞要2��3天才能增加一倍。
　　一個(gè)食用肉類的問(wèn)題
　　如果你曾經(jīng)希望能有一種肉類的替代品，聞起來(lái)和嘗起來(lái)都像真的，但是并不是通過(guò)殺害動(dòng)物得來(lái)的，那么你的要求將在不久之后得到滿足。研究者相信培養(yǎng)肉類馬上就可能大量生產(chǎn)，作為一種供給的替代品供應(yīng)肉類工業(yè)。
　　在富有營(yíng)養(yǎng)的肉湯中使瘦肉細(xì)胞成長(zhǎng)（肉類的主要成分）是一件容易的事情。困難在于使這些細(xì)胞能組成像真的肉類那樣的東西。一個(gè)名為"組織創(chuàng)世紀(jì)"公司的工程師的首領(lǐng)Paul Kosnrk希望利用機(jī)械錨定技術(shù)來(lái)拉伸細(xì)胞。這種技術(shù)刺激細(xì)胞形成被結(jié)締組織環(huán)繞的細(xì)小肌肉束，和真的肌肉的組織形式相類似。
　　北卡羅來(lái)納州立大學(xué)的生物醫(yī)學(xué)工程師Robert Dennis相信，在實(shí)驗(yàn)室中培養(yǎng)出健康的肌肉組織的秘密在于理解肌肉組織是怎樣和環(huán)境相互作用的。自然界中，肌肉組織作為一個(gè)更大的機(jī)體組織的基礎(chǔ)而存在，并且依靠這個(gè)機(jī)體中的其他組織而存在。如果沒(méi)有它們的鄰居適當(dāng)?shù)拇碳�，它們就將退化。Dennis博士和他的團(tuán)隊(duì)在過(guò)去的三年里研究了這些相似的組織的相互作用，并且發(fā)表了在兩個(gè)比較重要的生物工程學(xué)方面成功的研究--肌肉組織和結(jié)締組織的關(guān)系，以及肌肉組織和神經(jīng)組織的關(guān)系。
　　在紐約托羅大學(xué)的保健科學(xué)學(xué)院，Morris Benjaminson和他的團(tuán)隊(duì)正在研究怎樣從魚(yú)的身體上取下活體組織，然后人工培養(yǎng)。這種方法的優(yōu)點(diǎn)是，組織有一個(gè)輸送養(yǎng)分功能的血管系統(tǒng)，這樣它就可以在人工環(huán)境中生長(zhǎng)出超過(guò)厘米數(shù)量級(jí)的厚度--這也是現(xiàn)今生長(zhǎng)的極限。
　　荷蘭Utrecht 大學(xué)的肉類科學(xué)家Henk Haagsman正在試圖從Stegeman香腸公司得到對(duì)其碎塊豬肉的支持，這些豬肉塊源于人工生長(zhǎng)的細(xì)胞。這種材料可以用到香腸，漢堡和壽司中去。
　　然而，為什么一個(gè)人想要食用人工的，而不是剛宰了并剔骨后的新鮮的肉類呢？含糊地說(shuō)，這樣可以讓素食者們擁有并享用他們理想的肉塊。但是香腸肉類工程還有另外一個(gè)原因：衛(wèi)生。正如動(dòng)物權(quán)利組織PETA的Ingrid Newkrik指出的："想到熱狗里面的肉原來(lái)是什么時(shí)，沒(méi)有人會(huì)在心底里反對(duì)食用干凈的克隆肉類制品"。
　　人工肉類可以在無(wú)菌環(huán)境中培養(yǎng)起來(lái)，以避免沙門(mén)氏菌，大腸桿菌，彎曲狀桿菌以及其他臟東西。也可以通過(guò)對(duì)成分的調(diào)節(jié)來(lái)使得其更加健康--例如，引進(jìn)有益心臟的omega��3型脂肪酸。在絲毫不威脅到物種種群的情況下，你甚至還可以從快要滅絕的動(dòng)物身上取下細(xì)胞，用這些細(xì)胞來(lái)培養(yǎng)成肉。大熊貓肉排，還有呢？

　Aircraft emissions: The dirty sky
　　All big ideas start life on the fringes of debate. Very often it takes a shocking event to move them into the mainstream. Until last year interest in climate change was espoused mainly by scientists and green lobbyists-and the few politicians they had badgered into paying attention. But since Hurricane Katrina, something seems to have changed, particularly in America.
　　There are plenty of anecdotal signs of change: Britain’s pro business Tories have turned green; Al Gore is back in fashion in America. Companies are beginning to take action and encouraging governments to do the same. Europe already has an emissions trading system (ETS) for its five dirtiest industries. In America, although the Bush administration still resists federal legislation, more and more states do not.
　　So far the political about global warming have centred on two polluters, smoggy factories and dirty cars. Next month the European Parliament will vote on whether to extend its emissions trading system to airlines. If it decides in favor, the whole industry will feel the impact, for it will affect not just European airlines but all those that fly into and out of the EU. Talk about this prospect soured the International Air Transport Association’s annual meeting this week in Paris. But whatever happens in the EU, the airlines look set to face vociferous demands that they should pay for their emissions.
　　In some ways, the airlines are an odd target for greens. They produce only around 3% of the world’s man made carbon emissions. Surface transport, by contrast, produces 22%. Europe’s merchant ships spew out around a third more carbon than aircraft do, and nobody is going after them. And unlike cars-potent symbols of individualism-airlines are public transport, jamming in as many people as they can into each plane.
　　What’s more, many air travelers cannot easily switch. Car drivers can hop on the train or the bus, but transatlantic travelers can’t row from London to New York. Nor can aircraft fuel be swapped for a green alternative. Car drivers can buy electro petrol hybrids but aircraft are, for now, stuck with kerosene, because its energy density makes it the only practical fuel to carry around in the air.
　　Yet in other ways, airlines are a fine target. They pay no tax on fuel for international flights, and therefore escape the "polluter pays" principle even more niftily than other forms of transport. Their emissions are especially damaging, too-partly because the nitrogen oxides from jet engine exhausts help create ozone, a potent greenhouse gas, and partly because the pretty trails that aircraft leave behind them help make the clouds that can intensify the greenhouse effect.
　　Slowly, businessmen and politicians are coming to agree with scientists. If this generation does not tackle climate change, its descendants will not think much of it. That means raising costs for all sources of pollution. Even those deceptively cheap weekend breaks cannot be exempt.
　　debate
　　v./n. 爭(zhēng)論，辯論
　　［真題例句］ And so it does-and all would be well were reason the only judge in the creationism/evolution debate(n.).［1996年閱讀5］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 的確如此--如果理性是創(chuàng)世紀(jì)論和進(jìn)化論之爭(zhēng)的惟一標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，一切問(wèn)題也就迎刃而解了。
　　administration
　　n.①管理，經(jīng)營(yíng)；②行政（機(jī)關(guān)，部門(mén)）；③政府
　　［真題例句］ If the Administration (②) won’t take the legislative initiative, Congress should help to begin fashioning conservation measures.［2005年閱讀2］
　�。劾�句精譯］假如行政部門(mén)沒(méi)有采取司法行動(dòng)，議會(huì)就應(yīng)該協(xié)助來(lái)推廣環(huán)保措施。
　　prospect
　　n.①景色；②前景，前途，展望
　�。壅骖}例句］ The prospects (②) for cure, though still distant, are brighter.［1994年閱讀4］
　　［例句精譯］ 治癌前景盡管遙遠(yuǎn)，但已越來(lái)越明朗。
　　odd
　　a.①奇數(shù)的，單的；②奇怪的，古怪的；③單只的，不成對(duì)的；④臨時(shí)的，不固定的；⑤帶零頭的，余的
　　［真題例句］ In an odd (②) way, however, it is the educated who have claimed to have give up on ambition as an ideal.［2000年閱讀5］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 然而，恰恰是那些受過(guò)良好教育的人卻不可思議地聲稱他們已經(jīng)放棄了雄心壯志這一理想。
　　switch
　　n.①開(kāi)關(guān)，電閘；②轉(zhuǎn)換；③枝條，鞭子；v.①轉(zhuǎn)換；②（off）判斷；③（on）接通
　�。壅骖}例句］ Moreover, most of the changes that companies make are intended to keep them profitable, and this need not always mean increasing productivity: switching (v.①) to new markets or improving quality can matter just as much.［1998年閱讀2］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 另外，公司的大部分改革是為了贏利，而達(dá)到贏利的目的不一定非要提高生產(chǎn)力：轉(zhuǎn)入新的市場(chǎng)或改善產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量也會(huì)有同樣的功效。
　　nitrogen
　　n.氮
　�。壅骖}例句］ Vitamins are similar because they are made of the same elements-usually carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, and (45：sometimes) nitrogen.［1996年完形］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 各種維生素都很相似，因?yàn)樗鼈冇赏瑯拥脑�素�?gòu)成，一般是碳、氫、氧，有時(shí)還有氮。
　　descendant
　　n.子孫，后代
　　［真題例句］ But however amazed our descendants may be at how far from Utopia we were, they will look just like us.［2000年閱讀2］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 但是，不管我們的子孫后代對(duì)我們離烏托邦的理想境界還差多遠(yuǎn)感到有多么驚訝，他們的樣子會(huì)同我們差不了多少。
　　Little Tips：
　　航空業(yè)加劇溫室效應(yīng)，飛機(jī)排放的污染物更易導(dǎo)致全球氣候變暖.
　　航空業(yè)是氣候變暖的另一罪魁禍?zhǔn)�。飛機(jī)每年排放3億噸溫室氣體。因飛機(jī)在高空飛行，它所排放的污染物比地面排放的污染物對(duì)大氣的影響更大，更易導(dǎo)致溫室效應(yīng)的產(chǎn)生和全球氣候的變化。
　　如何控制航空業(yè)的溫室氣體排放：使外部成本向內(nèi)部轉(zhuǎn)化。作為溫室氣體排放的大戶，各大航空公司應(yīng)對(duì)其造成的環(huán)境污染支付等額的費(fèi)用作為補(bǔ)償。
　　飛機(jī)排放物：骯臟的天空
　　所有的重要觀念都在爭(zhēng)論的邊緣產(chǎn)生，而且通常發(fā)生了令人震驚的事件后這些觀念才會(huì)成為主流。直到去年為止，關(guān)心氣候變化的人群主要是科學(xué)家以及環(huán)保主義者--以及少數(shù)一些對(duì)此表示關(guān)心的政客。但是自從卡特里娜颶風(fēng)出現(xiàn)以來(lái)，有些事情似乎開(kāi)始改變，特別是在美國(guó)。
　　有足夠的跡象表明變化的出現(xiàn)：英國(guó)的親商保守黨開(kāi)始向綠黨陣營(yíng)轉(zhuǎn)變；Al Gore在美國(guó)重新變得受歡迎。各個(gè)公司開(kāi)始采取行動(dòng)，同時(shí)也鼓勵(lì)政府這樣做。歐洲已經(jīng)為它污染比較為嚴(yán)重的5個(gè)工業(yè)制定了排放交易方案。在美國(guó)，盡管布什政府仍然抵制進(jìn)行聯(lián)邦立法，越來(lái)越多的州卻開(kāi)始地方立法。
　　到目前為止有關(guān)全球變暖的政治紛爭(zhēng)主要集中在兩種污染者身上：排放廢氣的工廠以及污染的汽車。下個(gè)月歐洲議會(huì)將投票決定是否在航空業(yè)適用排放交易方案。如果決定是肯定的，那么整個(gè)民航業(yè)將受到影響，因?yàn)檫@個(gè)方案不僅影響歐洲的航線，同樣也對(duì)到達(dá)歐洲和飛離歐洲的航線產(chǎn)生作用。談?wù)撨@種可能性使在巴黎召開(kāi)的國(guó)際航空運(yùn)輸協(xié)會(huì)年會(huì)的氣氛變得緊張起來(lái)。但是不管歐盟如何決定，航空公司看起來(lái)必須面對(duì)他們應(yīng)當(dāng)為他們排放的廢氣付費(fèi)的強(qiáng)大的呼聲。
　　在某些方面，航空公司對(duì)綠色政治組織來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)奇怪的目標(biāo)。它們排放的碳污染僅僅只占世界人為碳污染的3%。相較而言，地面運(yùn)輸占了22%。歐洲商船排放的碳比飛機(jī)排放的要多三分之一左右，但是卻沒(méi)有人追究它們。而且不像汽車--利己主義的重要標(biāo)志--飛機(jī)是公共交通，在每架飛機(jī)內(nèi)塞入盡可能多的人。
　　何況許多乘飛機(jī)出行的人無(wú)法那么容易地改乘其他交通工具。小汽車司機(jī)可以乘火車或者公車，但是一個(gè)橫穿大西洋的旅行者不可能從倫敦劃船到紐約。同樣的，航空燃料也不能用無(wú)污染的替代品來(lái)替換。小汽車司機(jī)可以購(gòu)買電力汽油混合動(dòng)力的汽車，但是飛機(jī)只能用煤油，因?yàn)樗�的能量密度使其成為唯一可以在空中攜帶的燃料。
　　但是從其他方面來(lái)說(shuō)，航空公司又是一個(gè)很好的攻擊目標(biāo)。他們不為國(guó)際飛行中的燃料付稅，從而比起其他運(yùn)輸工具來(lái)更多地從"污染者付費(fèi)"的原則中逃脫。而且他們的排放物特別具有破壞性，部分原因是噴氣式發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)排放的氮氧化合物促使溫室氣體臭氧的合成，部分原因是飛機(jī)飛過(guò)后留下的漂亮尾煙幫助云層形成從而加劇溫室效應(yīng)。
　　慢慢地，生意人和政治家們都開(kāi)始同意科學(xué)家的看法。如果這一代人不解決氣候變化的問(wèn)題，那下一代人也不會(huì)重視。這意味著將為所有形式的污染付出更高的成本。就算是現(xiàn)在似乎很便宜的周末旅行也不能例外地變得昂貴。

Behind the bleeding edge
　　MANKIND’S progress in developing new gizmos is often referred to as the "march of technology". That conjures up images of constant and relentless forward movement orchestrated with military precision. In reality, technological progress is rather less orderly. Some technologies do indeed improve at such a predictable pace that they obey simple formulae such as Moore’s law, which acts as a battle plan for the semiconductor industry. Other technologies proceed by painful lurches-think of third�瞘eneration mobile phones, or new versions of Microsoft Windows. And there are some cases, particularly in the developing world, when technological progress takes the form of a leapfrog.
　　Such leapfrogging involves adopting a new technology directly, and skipping over the earlier, inferior versions of it that came before. By far the best�瞜nown example is that of mobile phones in the developing world. Fixed�瞝ine networks are poor or non�瞖xistent in many developing countries, so people have leapfrogged straight to mobile phones instead. The number of mobile phones now far outstrips the number of fixed�瞝ine telephones in China, India and sub�睸aharan Africa.
　　There are other examples. Incandescent light bulbs, introduced in the late 1870s, are slowly being displaced in the developed world by more energy�瞖fficient light�瞖mitting diodes (LEDs), in applications from traffic lights to domestic lighting. LEDs could, however, have an even greater impact in parts of the developing world that lack mains power and electric lighting altogether. LEDs’ greater energy efficiency makes it possible to run them from batteries charged by solar panels during the day.
　　Being behind the "bleeding edge" of technological development can sometimes be a good thing, in short. It means that early versions of a technology, which may be buggy, unreliable or otherwise inferior, can be avoided. America, for example, was the first country to adopt colour television, which explains why American television still looks so bad today: other countries came to the technology later and adopted technically superior standards.
　　The lesson to be drawn from all of this is that it is wrong to assume that developing countries will follow the same technological course as developed nations. Having skipped fixed�瞝ine telephones, some parts of the world may well skip desktop computers in favour of portable devices, for example. Entire economies may even leapfrog from agriculture straight to high�瞭ech industries. That is what happened in Israel, which went from citrus farming to microchips; India, similarly, is doing its best to jump straight to a high�瞭ech service economy.
　　Those who anticipate and facilitate leapfrogging can prosper as a result. Those who fail to see it coming risk being jumped over. Kodak, for example, hit by the sudden rise of digital cameras in the developed world, wrongly assumed that it would still be able to sell old�瞗ashioned film and film cameras in China instead. But the emerging Chinese middle classes leapfrogged straight to digital cameras-and even those are now outnumbered by camera phones.
　　precision
　　n.精確，精確度
　�。壅骖}例句］ The tests themselves are merely tools, with characteristics that can be measured with reasonable precision under specified conditions.［1995年翻譯］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 這些測(cè)試本身只是一種工具，其各種特性是可以在規(guī)定的條件下用相當(dāng)?shù)木�度�?lái)測(cè)定的。
　　skip
　　v.跳，蹦，急速改變，跳讀，遺漏，跳躍；n.跳躍
　　inferior
　　a.①（to）下等的，下級(jí)的；②差的，次的；n.下級(jí)，晚輩
　�。壅骖}例句］ He will not do so for long, for mercifully the public has the good sense not to buy the inferior (a.②) article more than once.［1995年閱讀1］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 他這樣做的時(shí)間不會(huì)長(zhǎng)，因?yàn)閼c幸的是，公眾有良好的判斷力，他們不會(huì)一而再、再而三地去購(gòu)買劣質(zhì)商品。
　　version
　　n.①型，版本；②譯本，譯文；③說(shuō)法，看法；④（某種）形式
　　［真題例句］ And if scientists have yet to create the mechanical version (④) of science fiction, they have begun to come close.［2002年閱讀2］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 如果科學(xué)家們還沒(méi)有在機(jī)械上實(shí)現(xiàn)科幻小說(shuō)的幻想，那么他們也已經(jīng)很接近這個(gè)目標(biāo)了。
　　assume
　　v.①假裝；②假定，設(shè)想；③采取，承擔(dān)；④呈現(xiàn)；⑤以為，認(rèn)為
　　［真題例句］ (71) Actually, it isn�餿, because it assumes (②) that there is an agreed account of human rights, which is something the world does not have.［1997年翻譯］
　�。劾�句精譯］ （71）事實(shí)并非如此，因?yàn)檫@種問(wèn)法是以人們對(duì)人的權(quán)利達(dá)成共識(shí)為基礎(chǔ)的，而這種共同認(rèn)識(shí)并不存在。
　　［真題例句］ (41：Neither) kind of sleep is at all well�瞮nderstood , but REM sleep is (42：assumed) (⑤) to serve some restorative function of the brain.［1995年完形］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 我們對(duì)兩種形式的睡眠了解都不多，但是人們認(rèn)為REM睡眠對(duì)大腦起著某種康復(fù)功能。
　　facilitate
　　v.使變得（更）容易，使便利
　　［真題例句］ Technology has facilitated the sharing of information and the storage and delivery of information, thus making more information available to more people.［1995年閱讀3］考試大收集整理
　�。劾�句精譯］ 技術(shù)的發(fā)展促進(jìn)了信息分享、存儲(chǔ)和傳遞，這就使更多的人得到更多的信息。
　　emerge
　　v.浮現(xiàn)，出現(xiàn)
　�。壅骖}例句］ Emerging from the 1980 census is the picture of a nation developing more and more regional competition, as population growth in the Northeast and Midwest reaches a near standstill.［1998年閱讀4］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 1980年美國(guó)人口普查表明：隨著東北部和中西部人口增長(zhǎng)近乎停止，地區(qū)間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)越來(lái)越激烈了。
　　Little Tips:
 　　后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)理論：發(fā)生變革的當(dāng)代, 發(fā)展中國(guó)家完全有可能通過(guò)“蛙跳”實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的趕超。從發(fā)展中國(guó)家的角度來(lái)看,新增長(zhǎng)理論無(wú)外乎解釋了兩個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象:一個(gè)是“經(jīng)濟(jì)趨異”的原因,即發(fā)展中國(guó)家知識(shí)存量低于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的“后發(fā)劣勢(shì)”;二是“經(jīng)濟(jì)趕超”的途徑,即發(fā)展中國(guó)家利用知識(shí)外溢和技術(shù)跳躍實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)趕超的“后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)”,具體而言是指,發(fā)展中國(guó)家通過(guò)選擇性吸收和學(xué)習(xí),可在短短幾十年內(nèi)跳躍式地獲得發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家用幾百年才獲得的知識(shí)存量。
　　落后于尖端
　　當(dāng)談到人類在某些新發(fā)明上取得進(jìn)展時(shí)，人們往往會(huì)提到“技術(shù)行軍”。這不禁讓人眼前浮現(xiàn)一幅幅如軍隊(duì)般整齊排列、源源不斷、表情嚴(yán)肅地向前邁進(jìn)的景象。事實(shí)上，技術(shù)的進(jìn)步很少有步調(diào)一致的情形。的確，有些技術(shù)的進(jìn)步是以一種可預(yù)測(cè)的節(jié)奏進(jìn)行著，他們遵循摩爾定律般簡(jiǎn)單的公式，好比是半導(dǎo)體工業(yè)的設(shè)計(jì)圖紙。其他技術(shù)則往往舉步維艱、坎坷難行——看看第三代移動(dòng)電話或者微軟比較新版本的視窗操作系統(tǒng)就明白了。而在某些情況下，尤其在發(fā)展中國(guó)家，技術(shù)進(jìn)步卻是“跳躍式”的。
　　所謂“跳躍式”的進(jìn)步就是跨越早期略顯陳舊的技術(shù)而直接采用新技術(shù)。迄今，比較深入人心的例子恐怕就是發(fā)展中國(guó)家的移動(dòng)電話了。在許多發(fā)展中國(guó)家，固話網(wǎng)絡(luò)發(fā)展落后甚至就沒(méi)有。正因?yàn)槿绱�，這些國(guó)家的人們便直接“跑步進(jìn)入”移動(dòng)電話時(shí)代。如今，在中國(guó)、印度和非洲撒哈拉沙漠以南地區(qū)手機(jī)的數(shù)量遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)固定電話。
　　這兒還有一個(gè)例子。在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家里，從交通信號(hào)燈到家用照明燈，節(jié)能型LED燈正慢慢地取代19世紀(jì)70年代末引進(jìn)的白熾燈。然而，在那些缺少電力網(wǎng)絡(luò)和照明的發(fā)展中國(guó)家，LED可能已扮演更加重要的角色。憑借更高的能效，LED可以通過(guò)太陽(yáng)能電池供能全天候工作。
　　總之，尖端技術(shù)發(fā)展落后有時(shí)也未必是壞事。也就是說(shuō)，技術(shù)落后可以避免某項(xiàng)技術(shù)在發(fā)展初期可能不成熟、不可靠或者較粗糙所造成的麻煩。例如，美國(guó)是第一個(gè)使用彩色電視的國(guó)家，這也就解釋為什么時(shí)至今日美國(guó)的電視機(jī)看起來(lái)還是那么糟糕；其他國(guó)家發(fā)展該項(xiàng)技術(shù)起步較晚，但采用的是更先進(jìn)的技術(shù)工藝。
　　而種種技術(shù)跳躍也帶來(lái)了啟示：如果認(rèn)為發(fā)展中國(guó)家會(huì)重復(fù)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家走過(guò)的技術(shù)發(fā)展歷程，那就大錯(cuò)特錯(cuò)了。比如對(duì)世界上某些國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)，既然已經(jīng)跨越了固定電話，那么跨越臺(tái)式進(jìn)入便攜式計(jì)算機(jī)時(shí)代或許也理所當(dāng)然；甚至有可能整個(gè)國(guó)家從農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)直接轉(zhuǎn)向高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)。以色列便是例子，它從管理橘子園轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樯�產(chǎn)微芯片；而印度也同樣竭盡所能躋身高技術(shù)服務(wù)業(yè)。
　　早作準(zhǔn)備并為之提供便利可以坐享技術(shù)跳躍帶來(lái)的繁榮；而反應(yīng)遲鈍則意味著冒被他人趕超的危險(xiǎn)。例如柯達(dá)，之前已經(jīng)在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家內(nèi)遭到數(shù)碼相機(jī)的突襲而先敗了一陣，卻依然錯(cuò)誤地判斷老式膠卷和相機(jī)能夠在中國(guó)幫其挽回頹勢(shì)。但是，中國(guó)新興的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)們紛紛提前跨入了數(shù)碼相機(jī)時(shí)代——而且現(xiàn)在，甚至連數(shù)碼相機(jī)也被帶有攝像功能的手機(jī)趕超了。