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Population Growth

　　The growth of population  during the past few centuries is no proof that population will continue to grow straight upward toward infinity and doom. On the contrary, demographic history offers evidence that population growth has not been at all constant. According to paleoecologist Edward Deevey, the past million years show three momentous changes. The first, a rapid increase in population around  one  m illion B.  C., followed  the  innovations of tool making and  tool using. But when  the  new  power from the use  of tools has been  exploited, the  rate of world population  growth fell and became almost stable. The next rapid  jump in population started perhaps 10,000 years ago,  when mankind began to keep herds,  plow and  plant  the earth. Once again when initial productivity  gains  had been absorbed, the rate  of population growth abated. These two episodes suggest that the third great change, the present rapid growth, which began in the West between 250 and 350 years ago, may also slow down when, or if, technology begins to yield  fewer  innovations.  Of  course,  the  current  knowledge  revolution  may  continue  without foreseeable end. Either way - contrary to popular belief in constant geometric growth - population can be expected in the long run to adjust to productivity. And when one takes this view, population growth is seen to represent economic progress and human triumph rather than social failure.
　　全文翻譯：人口增長(zhǎng)
　　以往幾個(gè)世紀(jì)人口的增長(zhǎng)并不能證明人口會(huì)無(wú)限地直線向上增長(zhǎng)直到毀滅的 地步。  相反地，人口統(tǒng)計(jì)史料證明人口的增長(zhǎng)完全不是穩(wěn)定的。  古生態(tài)學(xué)家愛德華·狄維 認(rèn)為，在過(guò)去 100 萬(wàn)年間出現(xiàn)過(guò) 3 次重大的變動(dòng)。  第一次在公元前 100 萬(wàn)年左右，隨著在 工具的制作和使用上的革新而出現(xiàn)人口迅速增長(zhǎng)。  但當(dāng)工具的使用所產(chǎn)生的新動(dòng)力被充分 利用以后，世界人口增長(zhǎng)率下降并且趨于穩(wěn)定。  第二次人口劇增大約始于人類開始蓄畜、 墾耕的 10，000 年前。  一旦比較初的生產(chǎn)力增長(zhǎng)被吸收殆盡，人口的增長(zhǎng)再次衰落。  以上兩 段說(shuō)明，若技術(shù)革新的成果開始減少，從 250 到 350 年前就在西方開始出現(xiàn)的并且目前還在 繼續(xù)的人口迅速增長(zhǎng)可能也會(huì)放慢。 當(dāng)然，當(dāng)前的知識(shí)革命也許會(huì)持續(xù)下去而無(wú)法預(yù)見其 末來(lái)。  無(wú)論如何，與那種認(rèn)為人口以幾何級(jí)數(shù)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的觀點(diǎn)相反，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的觀點(diǎn)來(lái)說(shuō)， 人口可望受到生產(chǎn)力的調(diào)節(jié)。  接受了這一觀點(diǎn)，人口的增長(zhǎng)就可以被看成是經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)步和人 類勝利的標(biāo)志，而不是社會(huì)衰敗的標(biāo)志。