World Crude Oil Production May Peak a Decade Earlier Than Some Predict

In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil，scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014.This prediction is almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACS’Energy&Fuels1.

Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil". "Peak oil" is the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point，and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models is called the Hubbert model2.It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve3.A related concept is that4 of "Peak Oil." The term "Peak Oil" indicates the moment in which world wide production will peak，afterwards to start on irreversible decline.

The Hubbert model accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970.The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide.

However，recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for5 more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes，politics，and other factors，the scientists say.

The new study describes development of a new version of the Hubbert model that provides a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model，the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries，which supply most of the world’s conventional crude oil6.They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014，years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world’s oil reserves7 are being reduced at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate，they suggest.

詞匯：

conserve v.保護，保存 irreversible adj.不可逆的，不可改變的

crude oil原油

spark v.閃耀;激發(fā);鼓舞 insufficient 不充分的，不足的

curve n.曲線

注釋：

1.ACS’Energy&Fuels：ACS是American Chemical Society(美國化學學會)的縮寫。該學會成立于1876年，現(xiàn)已成為世界最大的科技協(xié)會。多年來，ACS一直致力于為全球化學研究機構、企業(yè)及個人提供高品質的文獻資訊及服務。ACS出版的期刊有34種，這些期刊在化學領域中是被引用次數(shù)最多的化學期刊，Energy&Fuels即是其中一本。

2.the Hubbert model：赫伯特模型是美國地質學家M.King Hubbert于1956年創(chuàng)建的，這是一個隨時間增長的模型，Hubbert將其引入油氣田開發(fā)，經(jīng)推導使其成為一個可以預測油氣田累積產(chǎn)量、瞬時產(chǎn)量、年產(chǎn)量和可采儲量等多項開發(fā)指標的多功能預測模型。

3.a bell shaped curve：鐘形曲線

4.that of peak oil：that指代concept。

5.account for：說明，解釋

6.conventional crude oil：常規(guī)原油

7.oil reserves：石油儲量。通常使用復數(shù)形式reserves。

練習：

1.Which of the following is closest in meaning to the word "sparked" appearing in paragraph 2 ?

A.flashed

B.stimulated

C.changed

D.ended

2.The term "a bell shaped curve" appearing in paragraph 2 indicates that global oil production will

A.take the shape of a flat curve.

B.keep growing.

C.keep declining.

D.start to decline after global oil production peaks.

3.Which of the following is NOT true of the Hubbert model?

A.It successfully predicted that oil production peaked in the U.S.in 1970.

B.It has been used to predict oil production in many countries.

C.It is insufficient to explain oil production cycles in some countries.

D.It provides a very realistic and accurate oil production.

4.What is the major achievement of the new study mentioned in the last paragraph?

A.It predicts global oil production will peak in 2014.

B.It predicts oil production will decline in 47 countries.

C.It confirms further the effectiveness of the Hubbert model.

D.It discovers a new gend of worldwide oil production.

5.Who develop the new version of the Hubbert model ?

A.American scientists.

B.Kuwaiti scientists.

C.British scientists.

D.Scientists of 47 major oil-producing countries.

答案與題解：

1.B spark一詞做及物動詞使用時有“發(fā)動”、“激發(fā)"的意思，在此意為stimulated，即“引發(fā)”，這個句子的意思是：全球石油消費的快速增長已引發(fā)了對“石油峰值”預測的興趣。

2.D 此句接下來的句子中所提到的a related concept即是與a bell shaped curve相關的概念，也就是說，接下來的這個句子對a bell shaped curve做了解釋，即世界石油生產(chǎn)達到最大峰值后將下降。

3.D 文章的第三段告訴我們，Hubbert預測模型精確地預測到美國石油生產(chǎn)于1970年將達到峰值。這一模型自受到公認后，已用于預測世界石油生產(chǎn)。第四段說，這一模型對于某些國家更加復雜的石油生產(chǎn)周期而言，其計算尚不充分。這些生產(chǎn)周期受到技術的改變、政策和其他因素的很大影響。所以，A、B和C都是對Hubbert模型的正確說明。

4.A 選項B、C和D所述內(nèi)容均未在文章中提到。最后一段告訴我們，科學家使用新的模型評估了47個主要的產(chǎn)油國家的石油生產(chǎn)趨勢，并預計全球常規(guī)原油生產(chǎn)到2014年將達最高峰值。所以，A是答案。

5.B短文第一段的第一個句子提供了答案。