第八篇

Hot Times All Around

(1) If good intentions and good ideas were all it took to save the deteriorating atmosphere, the planet’s fragile layer of air would be as good as fixed. The two great dangers threatening the blanket of gases that nurtures and protects life on earth — global warming and the thinning ozone layer — have been identified. Better yet, scientists and policymakers have come up with effective though expensive countermeasures.

(2) But that doesn’t mean these problems are anywhere close to being solved. The stratospheric? ozone layer, for example, is still getting thinner, despite the 1987 international agreement known as the Montreal Protocol?, which calls for a phaseout of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)? and other ozone-depleting? chemicals by the year 2006.

(3) CFCs — first fingered as dangerous in the 1970s by Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina, two of this year’s Nobel-prizewinning chemists — have been widely used for refrigeration and other purposes. If uncon-trolled, the CFC assault on the ozone layer could increase the amount of hazardous solar ultraviolet light that reaches the earth’s surface, which would, among other things, damage crops and cause cancer in humans. Thanks to a sense of urgency triggered by the 1985 detection of what has turned out to be an annual “hole” in the especially vulnerable ozone over Antarctica, the Montreal ______ have spurred industry to replace CFCs with safer substances.

(4) Yet the CFCs already in the air are still doing their dirty work. The Antarctic ozone hole is more severe this year than ever before, and ozone levels over temperate? regions are dipping as well. If the CFC phaseout proceeds on schedule, the atmosphere should start repairing itself by the year 2000, say scientists. Nonetheless, observes British Antarctic Survey meteorologist Jonathan Shanklin: “It will be the middle of the next century before things are back to where they were in the 1970s.” Even that timetable could be thrown off by interna-tional smugglers who have been bringing illegal CFCs into industrial countries to use in repairing or recharging old appliances. Last year alone 20000 tons of contraband? CFCs entered the U.S. — mostly from India, where the compounds are less restricted.

(5) Developing countries were given more time to comply with the Montreal Protocol and were promised that they would receive $250 million from richer nations to pay for the CFC phaseout. At the moment, though, only 60% of those funds has been forthcoming. Says Nelson Sabogal of the U.N. Environment Program: “If devel-oped countries don’t come up with the money, the ozone layer will not recover. This is a critical time.”

(6) It is also a critical time for warding off? potentially catastrophic climate change. Waste gases such as car-bon dioxide, methane? and the same CFCs that wreck the ozone layer all tend to trap sunlight and warm the earth. The predicted results: an eventual melting of polar ice caps, rises in sealevels and shifts in climate pat-terns.

(7) Delegates to the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio passed a resolution urging industrial countries to reduce emis-sions of “greenhouse gases” to 1990 levels, mostly by increasing energy efficiency, but the agreement was purely voluntary — and exempted developing nations. The industrial countries were also asked to help devel-oping nations switch to less polluting technology in a program known as “joint implementation.” Unfortunately, that would take money, and industrial nations are not in a spending mood these days. A few pilot projects have gone forward. Three U.S. utilities are building a gas-fired power plant in the Czech Republic to replace a coal-burning plant, and Japan is exploring similar ventures in China. For the most part, though, getting developed countries to sponsor such programs has proved difficult. Inside the industrial world, emission-reduction efforts have been most successful in ecology-minded Germany and Japan. But in the U.S., the world’s biggest green-house polluter, legislators want to cut taxes rather than boost spending.

(8) Until recently, slackening governments could point to scientific uncertainty about whether global warming has started, but that excuse is wearing thin. A draft report circulating on the Internet has proclaimed for the first time that warming has indeed begun. Global average temperatures have risen about 1℃ in the past century, and human activity is almost certainly part of the cause. “It’s as clear a record as we can possibly get of a warming trend,” says Tom Wigley, a senior scientist with the U. S. National Center for Atmospheric Research and a con-tributor to the U. N. -sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which produced the re-port.

(9) The draft report says temperatures will probably continue to rise, jumping as much as 5℃ over the next century. That will be the biggest increase since the warming that ended the last Ice Age — but this one will be taking place over decades, not centuries. That means sea levels will rise, flooding coastal areas and river deltas and endangering more than 100 million people. Beyond that, rainfall patterns will undoubtedly change, disrupt-ing agriculture. And weather extremes of all kinds will get more extreme. Hurricanes and typhoons are pre-dicted to become more powerful and destructive; wet areas are likely to get wetter, triggering floods, while hot, dry parts of the world could get even more arid.

(10) Because the changes will be rapid, natural ecosystems — wet lands, rain forests, savannas — may be unable to adapt. Animals and plants that have evolved to live under a certain set of climate conditions will sud-denly face different circumstances. Many will go extinct. And the potential for deadly disease outbreaks will rise: warming waters will be more hospitable to germs like those that cause cholera?; disease carriers such as the Aedes aegypti mosquito may find they can survive nicely in places like northern Europe and the U.S., mak-ing illnesses such as malaria? more widespread.

(11) The good news is that this gloomy scenario? may galvanize? the world’s governments into taking serious action. The first line of attack, says Florentin Krause, an IPCC contributor and director of the California-based International Project for Sustainable Energy Paths, should be “no regrets” actions — changes that will be beneficial no mater how much of a threat global warming turns out to be. Among them: promoting the use of energy efficient appliances and cars. But the IPCC report, says Krause, makes it clear that nations must do more. For example, though it’s now more costly to generate electricity from solar cells than from gas or coal, using the sun’s clean energy could save money that would otherwise have to be spent in the future combatting the effects of global warming.

(12) The encouraging precedent is the Montreal Protocol for ozone protection, which showed how quickly na-tions can act when they finally recognize a disaster. A related lesson is that if CFCs do disappear, it will be partly because chemical manufacturens discover they can make a profit by selling safer replacements. The same process may ultimately be what relieves global warming. After long years of effort, manufacturers of solar-power cells are at last close to matching the low costs of more conventional power technologies. And a few big orders from utilities could drive the price down to competitive levels. If that happens, then all nations, from the rich to the poor, may end up working to save the atmosphere for the same reason they’ve polluted it: pure eco-nomic self-interest.

【參考譯文】: 全面加溫

(1) 如果光靠良好的用心與正確的觀念就能挽救逐步惡化中的大氣層，那么地球上這一層脆弱的空氣就沒問題了。這一層氣體，哺育著、庇護著地球上的生命，本身正面臨兩大威脅，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)找出來了：全球溫度上升，以及臭氧層損耗。不僅如此，科學家與決策人士還提出了盡管耗費昂貴但是十分有效的防范措施。

(2) 但是大氣層的問題要獲得解決還早得很。例如，在同溫層高處的臭氧層還是日漸稀薄，盡管在1987年國際間曾達成協(xié)定（稱為《蒙特利爾公約》），呼吁逐步淘汰氟利昂制冷劑與其他破壞臭氧的化學物質(zhì)，以公元2006年為底線。

(3) 1970年代，羅蘭德與莫理納（他們在今年雙雙贏得諾貝爾化學獎）首度指出氟利昂制冷劑的危險。這種物質(zhì)普遍使用于冷凍以及其他用途。如果不加以控制，它會破壞臭氧層，造成陽光中危險的紫外線大量射到地球表面，這會有許多害處，例如農(nóng)作物受損，也會致癌。1985年發(fā)現(xiàn)，在南極洲上空特別脆弱的臭氧層出現(xiàn)破洞（后來證明是年年出現(xiàn)破洞），世人終于感覺到事態(tài)緊急，于是達成《蒙特利爾公約》，促使各業(yè)以較安全的物質(zhì)代替氟利昂制冷劑。

(4) 但是空氣中現(xiàn)有的氟利昂制冷劑還在繼續(xù)肆虐。南極洲臭氧層破洞今年更趨嚴重，而且溫帶地區(qū)上空的臭氧含量也在下降�？茖W家表示， 如果淘汰氟利昂制冷劑能按照進度達成，到2000年時大氣層應能開始自我修復。然而英國南極觀測會的氣象學家尚克林表示：“要到下世紀中葉才能恢復到1970年的狀況�！边@個進度恐怕也會出差錯，因為國際走私客一直挾帶非法的氟利昂制冷劑到工業(yè)國家，用以修補或添加在舊式用品中。去年一年就有2萬噸違禁的氟利昂制冷劑進入美國——大多來自管制較松的印度。

(5)發(fā)展中國家有較長的期限來達到《蒙特利爾公約》的要求，而且獲得承諾，可以得到富有國家提供的2.5 億美元經(jīng)費以逐步淘汰氟利昂制冷劑�？墒悄壳斑@筆經(jīng)費只有60%正在支付中。聯(lián)合國環(huán)境規(guī)劃署的薩布果表示：“如果先進國家的支票不能兌現(xiàn)，臭氧層就不能恢復。這是關(guān)鍵時刻�！�

(6)要想阻擋氣候形態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)變可能帶來的災難，現(xiàn)在也是關(guān)鍵時刻。各種廢氣，像二氧化碳、甲烷以及破壞臭氧層的氟利昂制冷劑，都可能捕捉陽光，提高地球上的溫度。預期的結(jié)果：南北極冰帽終將溶化，海平面上升、氣候形態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)變。

(7) 1992年里約熱內(nèi)盧地球高級會議的與會代表通過決議，呼吁工業(yè)發(fā)達國家將“溫室氣體”的排放量降低到1990年的水平，主要靠提高能源效率來達成，可是這項決議純屬自愿性質(zhì)——而且發(fā)展中國家也不包括在內(nèi)。同時還敦促工業(yè)國家參與“聯(lián)合施行”計劃，幫助發(fā)展中國家轉(zhuǎn)移到低污染的技術(shù)狀態(tài)�？墒沁@樣做要化錢，而工業(yè)發(fā)達國家目前并沒有興致要花錢。有幾項先導計劃是已經(jīng)展開了。美國有3家公用事業(yè)公司正在捷克共和國興建天然氣發(fā)電廠以取代燃煤發(fā)電廠，日本也在中國研究作類似的投資。但是一般說來，要叫先進國家同資來做這種計劃并不容易。在工業(yè)發(fā)達國家之林，有生態(tài)意識的德國與日本對于減低廢氣排放做得最有成效�？墒�，在美國這個世界第一的溫室氣體污染國，議員一心想減稅，不想增加支出。

(8)不久以前，沒有積極配合的國家還有一個借口：科學界還不確定全球溫度上升是否已經(jīng)開始了。這個借口現(xiàn)在快站不住腳了。國際互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上流傳的一份報告草案首度宣稱溫度確已上升。全球平均溫度100年來上升了1℃左右，幾乎可以肯定部分原因是人類活動造成的。湯姆·維格萊說：“溫度上升的趨向，這是最明確的記錄�！彼���美國國家大氣研究中心的資深科學家，也是聯(lián)合國主辦的氣象變化跨國會議（IPCC）的成員。這份報告就是IPCC提出的。

(9)報告草案中表明氣溫可能會持續(xù)上升，到下一世紀末可以大幅升高5℃。自從上一次冰河時代結(jié)束以來，這算是最大規(guī)模的溫度上升，而且僅歷時幾十年，不是幾百年。如此一來，海平面會升高，沿岸地區(qū)與河口三角洲會淹沒，危及1億以上的居民。此外降雨形態(tài)勢必會起變化，因而妨礙農(nóng)業(yè)活動。各式各樣惡劣的氣候也會變本加厲。預期颶風、臺風的威力會更強、破壞力更大。潮濕地帶會更加潮濕，引起洪水，而干旱地帶會更加干旱。

(10)因為變化來得太快，各式天然生態(tài)系統(tǒng)——沼澤、雨林和草原——可能會來不及適應。動植物經(jīng)長期演化，可以在某種氣候狀態(tài)下生存，突然之間要面對不同的氣候狀態(tài)，所以有許多會滅絕。致命疾病大流行的機率也會增加。水溫升高，有利于像霍亂菌等病菌的繁殖。像埃及斑蚊這種病媒可能在北歐、美國這種地方存活良好，所以像虐疾之類的疾病會更普遍。

⑾ 好消息是：這幅陰郁的景象也許能刺激各國政府認真采取行動。IPCC成員，也是加州的國際永續(xù)能源計劃負責人克勞斯表示，首要的行動應該著重“不必后悔”的行動——亦即，不論全球溫度上升的威脅實際上是大是小，做起來都有好處的一些改變，例如提倡使用能源效益高的器具與車輛。但克勞斯也說，從IPCC的報告看來，各國該做的顯然不只這些。比方說，用太陽能電池發(fā)電的成本目前雖然高于燃油或煤炭，可是利用干凈的太陽能，以后就不必再花錢去對抗溫度上升的惡果。

⑿ 有一個令人振奮的先例就是保護臭氧層的《蒙特利爾公約》，它證明世界各國在終于認清了災難的時候，能夠快速動員起來。連帶還有一個啟示：如果氟利昂制冷劑真的銷聲匿跡了，部分原因是化學廠商發(fā)現(xiàn)販售安全的替代用品也可以賺錢。這一共同作用將來可能是減緩溫度上升的法子。經(jīng)過多年的努力，太陽能電池廠商終于快要把成本降到和傳統(tǒng)發(fā)電方式相同了。公用事業(yè)公司下幾張大訂單，就可能把價格壓低到具有競爭力的水平。果真如此，那么世界各國，不論貧富，最后可能會朝向挽救大氣層而努力，原因和當初污染空氣的原因相同：純粹為了本身的經(jīng)濟利益。