Declining populations：Incredible shrinking countries
　　During the second half of the 20th century, the global population explosion was the big demographic bogey. Robert McNamara, president of the World Bank in the 1970s, compared the threat of unmanageable population pressures with the danger of nuclear war. Now that worry has evaporated, and this century is spooking itself with the opposite fear: the onset of demographic decline.
　　The shrinkage of Russia and eastern Europe is familiar, though not perhaps the scale of it: Russia’s population is expected to fall by 22% between 2005 and 2050, Ukraine’s by a staggering 43%. Now the phenomenon is creeping into the rich world: Japan has started to shrink and others, such as Italy and Germany, will soon follow. Even China’s population will be declining by the early 2030s, according to the UN, which projects that by 2050 populations will be lower than they are today in 50 countries.
　　Demographic decline worries people because it is believed to go hand in hand with economic decline. At the extremes it may well be the result of economic factors: pessimism may depress the birth rate and push up rates of suicide and alcoholism. But, in the main, demographic decline is the consequence of the low fertility that generally goes with growing prosperity. In Japan, for instance, birth rates fell below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman in the mid��1970s and have been particularly low in the past 15 years.
　　But if demographic decline is not generally a consequence of economic decline, surely it must be a cause? In a crude sense, yes. As populations shrink, GDP growth will slow. Some economies may even start to shrink, too. The result will be a loss of economic influence.
　　Governments hate the idea of a shrinking population because the absolute size of GDP matters for great�瞤ower status. The bigger the economy, the bigger the military, the greater the geopolitical clout: annual GDP estimates were first introduced in America in the 1940s as part of its war effort. Companies worry, too: they do not like the idea of their domestic markets shrinking. People should not mind, though. What matters for economic welfare is GDP per person.
　　The crucial question is therefore what the effect of demographic decline is on the growth of GDP per person. The bad news is that this looks likely to slow because working�瞐ge populations will decline more rapidly than overall populations. Yet this need not happen. Productivity growth may keep up growth in GDP per person: as labour becomes scarcer, and pressure to introduce new technologies to boost workers’ efficiency increases, so the productivity of labour may rise faster. Anyway, retirement ages can be lifted to increase the supply of labour even when the population is declining.
　　People love to worry-maybe it’s a symptom of ageing populations-but the gloom surrounding population declines misses the main point. The new demographics that are causing populations to age and to shrink are something to celebrate. Humanity was once caught in the trap of high fertility and high mortality. Now it has escaped into the freedom of low fertility and low mortality. Women’s control over the number of children they have is an unqualified good-as is the average person’s enjoyment, in rich countries, of ten more years of life than they had in 1960. Politicians may fear the decline of their nations’ economic prowess, but people should celebrate the new demographics as heralding a golden age.
　　Pressure
　　n.①壓（力）；②強(qiáng)制，壓迫，壓強(qiáng)；v.強(qiáng)制，迫使
　　［真題例句］ They can hope that, if one province includes a drug on its list, the pressure (n.①) will cause others to include it on theirs.［2005年新題型］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 他們可能會(huì)認(rèn)為如果一個(gè)省把一種藥包括在一個(gè)藥品名錄單上，就會(huì)迫使其他省把這種藥也包括在藥品名錄單上。
　　opposite
　　a.（to）對(duì)面的，對(duì)立的，相反的；n.對(duì)立面，對(duì)立物；prep.在......的對(duì)面
　　shrink
　　v.①起皺，收縮；②退縮，畏縮
　�。壅骖}例句］ Some huge American industries, such as consumer electronics, had shrunk (①) or vanished in the face of foreign competition.［2000年閱讀1］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 面對(duì)國(guó)外競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，一些大型的美國(guó)工業(yè)，如消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)業(yè)，已經(jīng)萎縮或漸漸消失。
　　extreme
　　a.①末端的，盡頭的；②極度的，極端的；n.①極端；②比較大程度；③極度（狀態(tài)）
　�。壅骖}例句］ Shippers who feel they are being overcharged have the right to appeal to the federal government�餾 Surface Transportation Board for rate relief, but the process is expensive, time consuming, and will work only in truly extreme (a.②) cases.［2003年閱讀3］
　　［例句精譯］ 如果客戶感到他們被多收費(fèi)，他們有權(quán)上訴到聯(lián)邦政府的"陸路運(yùn)輸委員會(huì)"以爭(zhēng)取價(jià)格下調(diào)，但這個(gè)過(guò)程耗財(cái)、耗時(shí)，并且只有在真正極端特殊的情況下才有作用。
　　［真題例句］ (73) It leads the discussion to extremes (n.①) at the outset: it invites you to think that animals should be treated either with the consideration humans extend to other humans, or with no consideration at all. ［1997年翻譯］
　�。劾�句精譯］ （73）這種說(shuō)法從一開(kāi)始就將討論引向兩個(gè)極端。它使人們認(rèn)為應(yīng)當(dāng)這樣對(duì)待動(dòng)物：要么像對(duì)人類自身一樣關(guān)心體諒，要么完全冷漠無(wú)情。
　　prosperity
　　n.繁榮，興旺
　�。壅骖}例句］ Americans stopped taking prosperity for granted.［2000年閱讀1］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 美國(guó)不再視繁榮為理所當(dāng)然之事。
　　Decline
　　v./n. ①下傾，下降，下垂，衰落；②斜面，傾斜；v.拒絕，謝絕
　�。壅骖}例句］ Could the bad old days of economic decline (n.①) be about to return? ［2002年閱讀3］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 過(guò)去經(jīng)濟(jì)衰落的日子會(huì)不會(huì)重來(lái)？
　　Escape
　　n.逃跑，逃脫；v.逃跑；避開(kāi)，避免

　　Little Tips:
　　據(jù)《歐洲時(shí)報(bào)》援引法新社報(bào)導(dǎo)，歐洲委員會(huì)近日公布的一份研究報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)，到2050年，歐洲的人口與1995年的相比，可能會(huì)減少13%到22%。保加利亞鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)聯(lián)合會(huì)會(huì)長(zhǎng)鮑里斯拉夫?鮑里索夫15日警告說(shuō)，保加利亞人口持續(xù)減少，如果政府繼續(xù)忽視這一問(wèn)題，該國(guó)將于本世紀(jì)中葉出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的人口危機(jī)。日本的人口老化與生育率低落問(wèn)題可能對(duì)這個(gè)全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體造成嚴(yán)重打擊，因?yàn)楣ぷ鞴�養(yǎng)退休老人的年輕人越來(lái)越少。人口衰退在目前成為一個(gè)全球性問(wèn)題。
　　衰退的人口：以驚人的速度減小的國(guó)家
　　在二十世紀(jì)后半葉，全球人口大爆炸還是令人擔(dān)憂的人口問(wèn)題。70年代，世界銀行行長(zhǎng)Robert McNamara甚至還把人口壓力所帶來(lái)的威脅與核戰(zhàn)相提并論，然而在今天看來(lái)，這種憂慮已經(jīng)不復(fù)存在了。這個(gè)世紀(jì)悄悄過(guò)去了，帶給人們的卻是一個(gè)恰恰相反的憂慮：人口衰退開(kāi)始初露端倪。
　　盡管俄羅斯和東歐各國(guó)人口遞減的具體比例可能不被知曉，但對(duì)這一事實(shí)人們已經(jīng)有所了解。實(shí)際上，從2005年到2050年，俄羅斯的人口預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)減少22%，而烏克蘭竟然有43%之多。今天這一現(xiàn)象在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家也悄然出現(xiàn)：日本人口已經(jīng)開(kāi)始遞減，而其他的一些國(guó)家，如：意大利和德國(guó)，也將步日本的后塵。聯(lián)合國(guó)有關(guān)報(bào)告指出，即便是中國(guó)，到2030年初期人口也將開(kāi)始遞減。這份報(bào)告同時(shí)還指出，到2050年，將有50個(gè)國(guó)家的人口低于今天的水平。
　　人口的衰退之所以讓人們擔(dān)心，是因?yàn)槿藗兿嘈排c之相伴隨的是經(jīng)濟(jì)的衰退。進(jìn)一步來(lái)說(shuō)，我們有理由認(rèn)為人口的衰退是經(jīng)濟(jì)因素導(dǎo)致的。因?yàn)楸�觀會(huì)降低出生率卻會(huì)提高自殺和酒精中毒的比率。但是，大體上人口降低是由人口出生率過(guò)低導(dǎo)致的。而低的人口出生率通常與不斷增進(jìn)的繁榮相聯(lián)系。比如在日本七十年代中期，出生率降至相當(dāng)于平均每個(gè)婦女生2.1個(gè)孩子以下，而且在過(guò)去的15年里一直明顯的偏低。
　　但是如果人口衰退不是一般意義上的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退所導(dǎo)致的后果，那么它確切地說(shuō)一定是它的一個(gè)原因嗎？在某種不確定的意義上，答案是肯定的。隨著人口的衰退，GDP的增長(zhǎng)也將緩慢。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)體甚至也開(kāi)始衰退。其結(jié)果將是經(jīng)濟(jì)影響力的喪失。
　　政府不愿意看到人口的收縮，因?yàn)镚DP的絕對(duì)大小關(guān)乎強(qiáng)國(guó)的地位。經(jīng)濟(jì)越繁榮，軍隊(duì)越強(qiáng)大，地緣政治的影響也就越大。比如在四十年代，美國(guó)首次把年GDP評(píng)估的引入作為其戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)成就的一部分。公司也不愿看到人口衰退。因?yàn)樗麄儾幌胱约旱膰?guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)有所收縮。但普通人對(duì)此卻并不關(guān)心，因?yàn)殛P(guān)系他們經(jīng)濟(jì)福利的是人均GDP。
　　因此，至關(guān)重要的問(wèn)題是人口衰退對(duì)人均GDP增長(zhǎng)的影響是怎樣的。不利的一面是它將減緩人均GDP的增長(zhǎng)，因?yàn)檫m宜工作的人口將比總?cè)丝谙陆档母�快一些。然而這也并不一定會(huì)發(fā)生。生長(zhǎng)率的增長(zhǎng)將維持人均GDP的增長(zhǎng)。由于勞動(dòng)者的不足和引進(jìn)增加工人效率的新技術(shù)的壓力的增大，勞動(dòng)者的生產(chǎn)率可能會(huì)增長(zhǎng)得更快。無(wú)論怎樣，即使當(dāng)人口正在衰退的時(shí)候，我們?nèi)匀豢梢酝ㄟ^(guò)提高退休年限的方式來(lái)增加勞動(dòng)力的供給。
　　人們喜歡擔(dān)憂--這可能是上年紀(jì)的人的癥狀--但圍繞著人口衰退的憂愁卻沒(méi)有抓住要害。引發(fā)人口老齡化和衰退的新人口問(wèn)題也有值得慶幸的地方。人類過(guò)去掉入高出生率和高死亡率的陷阱，而現(xiàn)在逃到了低出生率和低死亡率的自由之地。女人擁有一種絕對(duì)的優(yōu)勢(shì)，那就是對(duì)自己生孩子的數(shù)量的掌控。在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，對(duì)普通人而言，能比六十年代的人多享受十年的生活也同樣是種絕對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)。政治家可能會(huì)擔(dān)心他們國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力下降。而我們普通人應(yīng)該為新人口問(wèn)題所預(yù)兆的黃金時(shí)代而歡呼。