Behind the bleeding edge
　　MANKIND’S progress in developing new gizmos is often referred to as the "march of technology". That conjures up images of constant and relentless forward movement orchestrated with military precision. In reality, technological progress is rather less orderly. Some technologies do indeed improve at such a predictable pace that they obey simple formulae such as Moore’s law, which acts as a battle plan for the semiconductor industry. Other technologies proceed by painful lurches-think of third�瞘eneration mobile phones, or new versions of Microsoft Windows. And there are some cases, particularly in the developing world, when technological progress takes the form of a leapfrog.
　　Such leapfrogging involves adopting a new technology directly, and skipping over the earlier, inferior versions of it that came before. By far the best�瞜nown example is that of mobile phones in the developing world. Fixed�瞝ine networks are poor or non�瞖xistent in many developing countries, so people have leapfrogged straight to mobile phones instead. The number of mobile phones now far outstrips the number of fixed�瞝ine telephones in China, India and sub�睸aharan Africa.
　　There are other examples. Incandescent light bulbs, introduced in the late 1870s, are slowly being displaced in the developed world by more energy�瞖fficient light�瞖mitting diodes (LEDs), in applications from traffic lights to domestic lighting. LEDs could, however, have an even greater impact in parts of the developing world that lack mains power and electric lighting altogether. LEDs’ greater energy efficiency makes it possible to run them from batteries charged by solar panels during the day.
　　Being behind the "bleeding edge" of technological development can sometimes be a good thing, in short. It means that early versions of a technology, which may be buggy, unreliable or otherwise inferior, can be avoided. America, for example, was the first country to adopt colour television, which explains why American television still looks so bad today: other countries came to the technology later and adopted technically superior standards.
　　The lesson to be drawn from all of this is that it is wrong to assume that developing countries will follow the same technological course as developed nations. Having skipped fixed�瞝ine telephones, some parts of the world may well skip desktop computers in favour of portable devices, for example. Entire economies may even leapfrog from agriculture straight to high�瞭ech industries. That is what happened in Israel, which went from citrus farming to microchips; India, similarly, is doing its best to jump straight to a high�瞭ech service economy.
　　Those who anticipate and facilitate leapfrogging can prosper as a result. Those who fail to see it coming risk being jumped over. Kodak, for example, hit by the sudden rise of digital cameras in the developed world, wrongly assumed that it would still be able to sell old�瞗ashioned film and film cameras in China instead. But the emerging Chinese middle classes leapfrogged straight to digital cameras-and even those are now outnumbered by camera phones.
　　precision
　　n.精確，精確度
　　［真題例句］ The tests themselves are merely tools, with characteristics that can be measured with reasonable precision under specified conditions.［1995年翻譯］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 這些測試本身只是一種工具，其各種特性是可以在規(guī)定的條件下用相當(dāng)?shù)木�度來測定的。
　　skip
　　v.跳，蹦，急速改變，跳讀，遺漏，跳躍；n.跳躍
　　inferior
　　a.①（to）下等的，下級的；②差的，次的；n.下級，晚輩
　�。壅骖}例句］ He will not do so for long, for mercifully the public has the good sense not to buy the inferior (a.②) article more than once.［1995年閱讀1］
　　［例句精譯］ 他這樣做的時間不會長，因為慶幸的是，公眾有良好的判斷力，他們不會一而再、再而三地去購買劣質(zhì)商品。
　　version
　　n.①型，版本；②譯本，譯文；③說法，看法；④（某種）形式
　　［真題例句］ And if scientists have yet to create the mechanical version (④) of science fiction, they have begun to come close.［2002年閱讀2］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 如果科學(xué)家們還沒有在機(jī)械上實(shí)現(xiàn)科幻小說的幻想，那么他們也已經(jīng)很接近這個目標(biāo)了。
　　assume
　　v.①假裝；②假定，設(shè)想；③采取，承擔(dān)；④呈現(xiàn)；⑤以為，認(rèn)為
　�。壅骖}例句］ (71) Actually, it isn�餿, because it assumes (②) that there is an agreed account of human rights, which is something the world does not have.［1997年翻譯］
　�。劾�句精譯］ （71）事實(shí)并非如此，因為這種問法是以人們對人的權(quán)利達(dá)成共識為基礎(chǔ)的，而這種共同認(rèn)識并不存在。
　　［真題例句］ (41：Neither) kind of sleep is at all well�瞮nderstood , but REM sleep is (42：assumed) (⑤) to serve some restorative function of the brain.［1995年完形］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 我們對兩種形式的睡眠了解都不多，但是人們認(rèn)為REM睡眠對大腦起著某種康復(fù)功能。
　　facilitate
　　v.使變得（更）容易，使便利
　�。壅骖}例句］ Technology has facilitated the sharing of information and the storage and delivery of information, thus making more information available to more people.［1995年閱讀3］考試大收集整理
　�。劾�句精譯］ 技術(shù)的發(fā)展促進(jìn)了信息分享、存儲和傳遞，這就使更多的人得到更多的信息。
　　emerge
　　v.浮現(xiàn)，出現(xiàn)
　�。壅骖}例句］ Emerging from the 1980 census is the picture of a nation developing more and more regional competition, as population growth in the Northeast and Midwest reaches a near standstill.［1998年閱讀4］
　�。劾�句精譯］ 1980年美國人口普查表明：隨著東北部和中西部人口增長近乎停止，地區(qū)間的競爭越來越激烈了。
　　Little Tips:
 　　后發(fā)優(yōu)勢理論：發(fā)生變革的當(dāng)代, 發(fā)展中國家完全有可能通過“蛙跳”實(shí)現(xiàn)對發(fā)達(dá)國家的趕超。從發(fā)展中國家的角度來看,新增長理論無外乎解釋了兩個經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象:一個是“經(jīng)濟(jì)趨異”的原因,即發(fā)展中國家知識存量低于發(fā)達(dá)國家的“后發(fā)劣勢”;二是“經(jīng)濟(jì)趕超”的途徑,即發(fā)展中國家利用知識外溢和技術(shù)跳躍實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)趕超的“后發(fā)優(yōu)勢”,具體而言是指,發(fā)展中國家通過選擇性吸收和學(xué)習(xí),可在短短幾十年內(nèi)跳躍式地獲得發(fā)達(dá)國家用幾百年才獲得的知識存量。
　　落后于尖端
　　當(dāng)談到人類在某些新發(fā)明上取得進(jìn)展時，人們往往會提到“技術(shù)行軍”。這不禁讓人眼前浮現(xiàn)一幅幅如軍隊般整齊排列、源源不斷、表情嚴(yán)肅地向前邁進(jìn)的景象。事實(shí)上，技術(shù)的進(jìn)步很少有步調(diào)一致的情形。的確，有些技術(shù)的進(jìn)步是以一種可預(yù)測的節(jié)奏進(jìn)行著，他們遵循摩爾定律般簡單的公式，好比是半導(dǎo)體工業(yè)的設(shè)計圖紙。其他技術(shù)則往往舉步維艱、坎坷難行——看看第三代移動電話或者微軟比較新版本的視窗操作系統(tǒng)就明白了。而在某些情況下，尤其在發(fā)展中國家，技術(shù)進(jìn)步卻是“跳躍式”的。
　　所謂“跳躍式”的進(jìn)步就是跨越早期略顯陳舊的技術(shù)而直接采用新技術(shù)。迄今，比較深入人心的例子恐怕就是發(fā)展中國家的移動電話了。在許多發(fā)展中國家，固話網(wǎng)絡(luò)發(fā)展落后甚至就沒有。正因為如此，這些國家的人們便直接“跑步進(jìn)入”移動電話時代。如今，在中國、印度和非洲撒哈拉沙漠以南地區(qū)手機(jī)的數(shù)量遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過固定電話。
　　這兒還有一個例子。在發(fā)達(dá)國家里，從交通信號燈到家用照明燈，節(jié)能型LED燈正慢慢地取代19世紀(jì)70年代末引進(jìn)的白熾燈。然而，在那些缺少電力網(wǎng)絡(luò)和照明的發(fā)展中國家，LED可能已扮演更加重要的角色。憑借更高的能效，LED可以通過太陽能電池供能全天候工作。
　　總之，尖端技術(shù)發(fā)展落后有時也未必是壞事。也就是說，技術(shù)落后可以避免某項技術(shù)在發(fā)展初期可能不成熟、不可靠或者較粗糙所造成的麻煩。例如，美國是第一個使用彩色電視的國家，這也就解釋為什么時至今日美國的電視機(jī)看起來還是那么糟糕；其他國家發(fā)展該項技術(shù)起步較晚，但采用的是更先進(jìn)的技術(shù)工藝。
　　而種種技術(shù)跳躍也帶來了啟示：如果認(rèn)為發(fā)展中國家會重復(fù)發(fā)達(dá)國家走過的技術(shù)發(fā)展歷程，那就大錯特錯了。比如對世界上某些國家來說，既然已經(jīng)跨越了固定電話，那么跨越臺式進(jìn)入便攜式計算機(jī)時代或許也理所當(dāng)然；甚至有可能整個國家從農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)直接轉(zhuǎn)向高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)。以色列便是例子，它從管理橘子園轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樯�產(chǎn)微芯片；而印度也同樣竭盡所能躋身高技術(shù)服務(wù)業(yè)。
　　早作準(zhǔn)備并為之提供便利可以坐享技術(shù)跳躍帶來的繁榮；而反應(yīng)遲鈍則意味著冒被他人趕超的危險。例如柯達(dá)，之前已經(jīng)在發(fā)達(dá)國家內(nèi)遭到數(shù)碼相機(jī)的突襲而先敗了一陣，卻依然錯誤地判斷老式膠卷和相機(jī)能夠在中國幫其挽回頹勢。但是，中國新興的中產(chǎn)階級們紛紛提前跨入了數(shù)碼相機(jī)時代——而且現(xiàn)在，甚至連數(shù)碼相機(jī)也被帶有攝像功能的手機(jī)趕超了。