Stock prices tumbled on Wall Street and across much of the rest of the world yesterday. They were driven sharply lower by worries over slowing economic growth in the United States and worsening borrowing conditions that could make everything from huge corporate buyouts to buying a new home more difficult. Major stock market gauges -- including the Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index -- were down more than 2 percent.

　　It was the worst one-day decline on Wall Street since markets plunged worldwide in late February after an investing scare in Shanghai, and it occurred amid the biggest volume of trading on the New York Stock Exchange in five years. Losses were comparable throughout Europe, and larger in many developing countries. ''The preconditions for a shock are in place,'' said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. ''Until very recently investors were very nonchalant about risks.''

　　Stock markets have been volatile in recent weeks. Continued strong profits for many companies and an economic boom in Asia have helped push oil prices higher. Meanwhile, however, there are various signs of weakness in the American economy and new difficulties in borrowing for many homeowners and companies that are highly leveraged or have poor credit.

　　The plunge came a day after the private equity firm buying Chrysler from DaimlerChrysler said it would complete the transaction for the automaker despite an inability to borrow the money in credit markets, as had been planned. Banks will hold those loans, as they will for a similar deal involving Alliance Boots, a British pharmacy chain. Shares of DaimlerChrysler fell $4.11, to $88.91.'' There is fear, but not a fear of recession,'' said Bill Gross, chief investment officer of the Pacific Investment Management Company, known as Pimco, a large bond management firm. ''The fear is directed toward the question of who will be willing to lend $200 billion to provide takeout financing for previously announced private equity deals.''

　　Yesterday, the Dow industrials plunged 311.50 points, or 2.3 percent, to 13,473.57, while the S.& P. 500 dropped 35.43 points, or 2.3 percent, to 1,482.66. The Nasdaq composite index was down 48.83 points, or 1.8 percent, to 2,599.34. The S.& P. is still up 4.5 percent for the year, while the Dow is 8.1 percent higher. But the S.& P. has fallen 4.5 percent since reaching a record last week. In the last hour or so of trading, the major Wall Street indexes recovered about a third of their steepest losses for the day. Losses of more than 2 percent were recorded in Spain, France and Germany, while Britain, Argentina, Mexico and Brazil fell more than 3 percent. Asian markets fell less yesterday, closing before the worst selling began, but opened down sharply on Friday.

　　注（1）：本文選自New York Times，07/27/2007

　　注（2）：本文習(xí)題命題模仿對象：第1、2題分別模仿2000年真題Text 3第1題和Text 4第3題，第3題模仿2004年真題Text 4第1題，第4題模仿2001年真題Text 1第2題，第5題模仿1999年真題Text 1第4題。
　　1． The passage is mainly_______.

　　[A] a review of the current condition of the American and world stock market
　　[B] an introduction of the world stock market
　　[C] a survey of the stock deal of DaimlerChrysler
　　[D] about the ups and downs of stock prices

　　2． Which of the following is TRUE according to the text?

　　[A] Currently it is more difficult for Americans to borrow money from banks for house purchase.
　　[B] The losses from stock markets are similar in U.S. and some developing countries.
　　[C] Investors were worried about the potential risks in stock market before yesterday.
　　[D] Economic boom in Asia prevent its stock market from falling.

　　3． If you were an investor, you might be able to earn money if _______.

　　[A] you held the shares of DaimlerChrysler
　　[B] you purchased new shares when the stock market opened yesterday.
　　[C] you bought and sold shares at the last one or two hours before closing
　　[D] you didn’t trade any shares yesterday.

　　4． We can infer from the text that _______.

　　[A] The Chrysler transaction will turn to be a failure.
　　[B] The banks hold the loans because of Alliance Boots.
　　[C] Bill Gross thinks the fear is from the huge amount of money.
　　[D] The difficulty of borrowing leads to the shrinking prices of shares of DaimlerChrysler.

　　5． The writer’s attitude towards the current stock market is_______.

　　[A] biased
　　[B] objective
　　[C] pessimistic
　　[D] optimistic

　　篇章剖析

　　本篇文章是一篇說明文，介紹了美國股市昨日下跌的情況。第一段開門見山地說明了股市大跌的事實及其原因，第二、三段則進(jìn)一步展開說明了股市比較近的狀況，影響股市的各種負(fù)面因素等。第四段用了一個具體的市場交易事例來說明股市不穩(wěn)定導(dǎo)致的后果，并引用了經(jīng)濟專業(yè)分析師的評論。比較后兩段綜述了美國各大指數(shù)以及世界各地股市的漲跌情況，引用了大量的數(shù)據(jù)。

　　詞匯注釋

　　tumble [`tQmbl] vi. 倒坍; 崩潰; 下跌 volatile [`vRl[tail] adj.可變的, 不穩(wěn)定的

　　buyout [`bBi9BUt] n. 全部買下 boom [bu:m] n.繁榮

　　gauge [^BUdV] n. 方法, 估量, 判斷 transaction [trAn`zAkF[n] n. 交易, 事務(wù)

　　plunge [plQndV] vi. 投入, 跳進(jìn), 陷入 pharmacy [`fB:m[si] n. 配藥業(yè), 制藥業(yè)

　　scare [skZ[] n. 驚恐, 恐慌, 恐懼 recession [ri`seF[n] n. 經(jīng)濟衰退, 不景氣

　　precondition [`pri:k[n`diF[n] n. 前提, 先決條件 takeout [`tei9aut] n. 資產(chǎn)外帶

　　nonchalant [`nRnF[l[nt] adj.不關(guān)心的, 若無其事的 index [indeks] n. 指數(shù)

　　難句突破

　　The plunge came a day after the private equity firm buying Chrysler from DaimlerChrysler said it would complete the transaction for the automaker despite an inability to borrow the money in credit markets, as had been planned.

　　主體句式 The plunge came a day after the … firm … said …

　　結(jié)構(gòu)分析 這是一個復(fù)雜句，主句為The plunge came，但在a day after后面的結(jié)構(gòu)比較復(fù)雜。首先，buying Chrysler from DaimlerChrysler是用來修飾he private equity firm，因此后面這個長句的基本結(jié)構(gòu)就是the firm said。said后面跟的是一個間接引語，這個長句的主體是it would complete the transaction for the automaker，之后的despite表示一個轉(zhuǎn)折的意思，而as had been planned是用來形容borrow the money in credit markets的。

　　句子譯文 股市大跌的前一日，從戴姆勒-克萊斯勒購買克萊斯勒企業(yè)債的這家私有證券公司聲稱，盡管現(xiàn)在從信貸市場借錢的進(jìn)程不像原計劃的順利，但其仍將為這家汽車制造公司完成交易�！　�

　　題目分析

　　1．A. 主旨題。判斷文章主旨要從文章整體來把握。文章第一段就指出美國股市昨日大幅下跌，接下來的幾段都在介紹下跌的狀況、原因、相關(guān)因素，并且詳細(xì)介紹了各個股票指數(shù)的一系列數(shù)據(jù)，比較后一段又描述了世界其他地區(qū)股市情況，可見全文都是在說明美國和世界股市的現(xiàn)狀。

　　2．A. 細(xì)節(jié)題。根據(jù)文章第一段第二句，“從大公司收購到普通人購買房屋等各種事情都變得更加困難”，答案顯而易見。其余三個選項均與文章意思相反。

　　3．C. 細(xì)節(jié)題。根據(jù)文章第五段比較后一句，“在昨日收盤前的一小時左右時間里，華爾街的各種主要指數(shù)在一天的狂跌之后上漲了約三分之一的幅度”，所以在比較后一兩個小時內(nèi)進(jìn)行買賣的投資者有可能會獲利。

　　4．D. 推理題。根絕文章第四段第一、二句話談到借錢不順利，銀行不愿意貸款等情況，因此導(dǎo)致了克萊斯勒收購案進(jìn)展受到了一定的阻礙。這一消息的結(jié)果影響到了公司的股價，緊接著第三句話就是談到了戴姆勒-克萊斯勒股票價格的下跌�？梢妰烧咧�間是有因果聯(lián)系的。

　　5．B. 態(tài)度題。作者的態(tài)度可以通過材料的選擇和措辭來判斷�？v觀全文，作者基本上都在描述事實和引用各種數(shù)據(jù)、言論，并沒有發(fā)表自己的看法。可見，作者對于股市現(xiàn)狀的態(tài)度是非�？陀^的。

　　參考譯文

　　華爾街以及世界許多地區(qū)的股票價格昨日都經(jīng)歷了大幅大跌。急劇下跌的主要原因是在與公眾對美國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展速度放慢的焦慮，以及惡化的信貸狀況，因而導(dǎo)致了從大公司收購到普通人購買房屋等各種事情都變得更加困難。幾個主要的股市指標(biāo)—包括道·瓊斯工業(yè)平均價格指數(shù)和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾五百種股份指數(shù)—都下挫了兩個百分點以上。

　　自二月底上海投資危機導(dǎo)致全球股市下跌以來，這是華爾街經(jīng)歷過的一天內(nèi)比較大幅度的下跌，而現(xiàn)在正是紐約證券交易所五年來交易規(guī)模比較大的時候。歐洲股市也遭遇了相當(dāng)規(guī)模的損失，但一些新興國家股市的損失則更為嚴(yán)重�！肮墒姓袷幍念A(yù)警早已出現(xiàn)，”穆迪經(jīng)濟網(wǎng)首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家馬克·贊第說道，“但是直到不久前，許多投資者仍然對于風(fēng)險視若無睹。”

　　幾周以來股市一直跌宕起伏。亞洲許多公司持續(xù)的高盈利報告和經(jīng)濟的迅速發(fā)展推動了油價的進(jìn)一步上漲。但與此同時，已有各種信號顯示出美國經(jīng)濟的疲軟、房屋購買的信貸困難、以及許多公司受到了高估或者擁有不良的信用記錄。

　　股市大跌的前一日，從戴姆勒-克萊斯勒購買克萊斯勒企業(yè)債的一家私有證券公司聲稱，盡管現(xiàn)在從信貸市場借錢的進(jìn)程不像原計劃那么順利，但其仍將與這家汽車制造公司完成交易。許多銀行都不愿意發(fā)放貸款，就像他們也不愿意為一樁涉及英國醫(yī)藥經(jīng)銷連鎖商聯(lián)合博姿公司的交易放款一樣。戴姆勒-克萊斯勒的股票價格已從88.91美元猛跌到4.11美元�！斑@是一種恐慌，但不是對于經(jīng)濟衰退的恐慌�！� 太平洋投資管理公司（即Pimco 公司，一家大型債券管理公司）首席投資官比爾"格羅斯說到，“恐慌來源于人們質(zhì)疑誰會愿意為這個先前宣稱的私人證券交易提供2000億美元的資產(chǎn)外帶�！�

　　昨日，道·瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)狂瀉311.50點，收盤13.473.57點，下跌了百分之2.3，而標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾下跌了35.43點，收盤1.482.66點，跌幅為百分之2.3。納斯達(dá)克綜合指數(shù)下跌了48.83點，收盤2.599.34點，跌幅為百分之1.8。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾全年仍上升了4.5個百分點，道·瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)則多出8.1個百分點。但是自從上周創(chuàng)造新紀(jì)錄以后，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾下降了4.5個百分點。在昨日收盤前的一小時左右時間里，華爾街的各種主要指數(shù)在一天的狂跌之后又上漲了約三分之一的幅度。

　　西班牙、法國、德國的股市損失超過了兩個百分點，而英國、阿根廷、墨西哥和巴西的股市則下降了超過三個百分點。亞洲市場昨日并沒有經(jīng)歷嚴(yán)重的下跌，在比較差交易開始前就已收盤，但周五卻已開始下滑。

　　War games are commonly used by the military to evaluate strategies, explore scenarios and reveal unexpected weaknesses. American ships and aircraft have just begun two weeks of war games in the Gulf, prompting protests from Iran, and last week South Korea carried out an annual computerised war-game exercise.

　　Might war games deserve a greater role in business? Military analogies abound in the corporate world. Plenty of bosses look to Sun Tzu, an ancient Chinese general, for management tips. And in business, as in war, outcomes depend on what others do, as well as one's own actions. Yet many firms fail to think systematically about how rivals will react to their plans—and traditional planning does a poor job of taking competitors' responses into account, says John McDermott, head of strategy at Xerox, an office-equipment company. Corporate war games, which simulate the interactions of multiple actors in a market, provide a better way to do so.

　　Such games have two chief characteristics. First, players break into teams and take on the roles of fierce competitors (and sometimes other citizens, such as customers). Second, the games involve several turns, allowing competitors not just to draw up their own strategies but to respond to the choices of others. Their popularity is rising. Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), a consultancy, is running 100 war games a year, up from around 50 three years ago. Open Options, a Canadian strategy consultancy, has been going since 1996 and its revenue doubled last year.

　　BAH introduces a quantitative element into its games, calculating the effect of each team's strategy on their company's profits and stockmarket value at the end of each turn. Open Options takes a further step. To help Xerox understand the market dynamics of the print and copy industry, it ran a one-day workshop in which teams from Xerox took the roles of the big companies in the market, itself included. Each team identified the things “their” company could do to change its strategy and drew up a list of its desired outcomes; these “preference trees” were shared with the other teams. The results were then pumped into Open Options' proprietary software tools, which played out interactions between the companies and produced a range of possible outcomes.

　　Mr McDermott says the game's predictive power was astonishing: one forecast, that a company would start to acquire a certain group of assets within the industry, came true within six months. By shedding light on areas where companies have different priorities, the concept of preference trees helps to highlight potential trade-offs, as well as competition. Open Options charges North American clients roughly $100,000 for an engagement.

　　The secret of successful war-gaming does not simply lie in mathematics, however. Interaction, not algebra, is the best way to win support for a new strategy. Game-players must be senior for the same reason—although having the top boss on a team can stifle feedback. Strategies also have to capture competitors' hard-to-quantify corporate cultures: when designing a game, BAH seeks out employees at its clients who have actually worked at competitors for that reason. But perhaps war games' greatest value lies in the way they encourage managers to think differently about the consequences of their actions. “To know your enemy, you must become your enemy,” as Sun Tzu would say.

　　注（1）：本文選自Economist, 05/31/2007

　　注（2）：本文習(xí)題命題模仿對象：第1題模仿2002年真題Text 2第2題和Text 5第3題，第3題模仿1995年真題Text 2第4題，第4題模仿2000年真題Text 4第3題，第5題模仿1998年真題Text 2第4題。
1． The expression “abound in” (Line 1, Paragraph 2) most probably means _______.

　　[A] be limited
　　[B] be appreciated
　　[C] be driven
　　[D] be plentiful

　　2． According to the text, traditional corporate planning _______.

　　[A] has been completely abandoned.
　　[B] fails to consider rivals’ reactions.
　　[C] includes the detailed analyses of strategies of all rival companies.
　　[D] functions well for the development of most companies.

　　3． The positive effect of war games owes to the following EXCEPT_______.
　　[A] the role playing of competitors
　　[B] the composition of several turns
　　[C] the introduction of quantitative factors
　　[D] the rising popularity of the game

　　4． Which of the following is TRUE according to the text?

　　[A] Both BAH and Open Options developed their own software tools for data analysis of war games.
　　[B] The war game service expands slowly because of its high fee.
　　[C] “Preference trees” refers to desired outcomes of the companies.
　　[D] War game’s predictive ability is not convincing

　　5． Which of the following is NOT a reason for the success of war games?

　　[A] feedback
　　[B] mathematics
　　[C] interaction
　　[D] consideration of enemy

　　篇章剖析

　　本文是一篇說明文，圍繞實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)的商業(yè)用途及其價值這個話題進(jìn)行了分析。第一段先簡單介紹了什么是實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)，第二段則立刻引入話題，指出公司制定戰(zhàn)略的傳統(tǒng)方式存在的缺點，從而提出本文的主要觀點，即公司實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)能夠幫助更好地理解自身與競爭對手的狀況。第三段介紹了實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)的兩個特點；第四、五段介紹了兩家提供實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)服務(wù)的咨詢公司策劃的實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)內(nèi)容及其效果。比較后一段對文章進(jìn)行了總結(jié)，進(jìn)一步指出了實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)的重要價值所在�！�

　　詞匯注釋

　　scenario [si`nB:ri[u] n. 情景；場面 quantitative [`kwRntitEtiv] adj.數(shù)量的, 定量的
　　prompt [prRmpt] v. 激勵；刺激 identify [`aifdentifai] vt. 識別, 鑒別
　　analogy [[`nAlEgi] n. 類似, 類推 pump [pQmp] v. ]把灌注; 傾注
　　abound [[`baund] vi. 多, 富于, 充滿 proprietary [prR`praiEtEri] adj. 所有的
　　stimulate [`stimjuleit] v. 刺激, 激勵 astonish [`EstRniF] v. 驚奇，驚訝

　　multiple [`mQltipl] adj. 多樣的, 多重的 trade-off n. 交換, 協(xié)定, 交易
　　consultancy [kEn`sQltnsi] n. 咨詢; 顧問公司 algebra [`AldVibrE] n. 代數(shù)學(xué)
　　revenue [`revinju:] n. 收入 stifle [`staifl] vt. 使窒息, 抑制

　　難句突破

　　Mr McDermott says the game's predictive power was astonishing: one forecast, that a company would start to acquire a certain group of assets within the industry, came true within six months.

　　主體句式 Mr McDermott says…

　　結(jié)構(gòu)分析 這個句子乍一看非常長，但是其結(jié)構(gòu)卻相當(dāng)清楚。主要結(jié)構(gòu)為Mr McDermott says the game's predictive power was astonishing，后面冒號的作用是舉例進(jìn)一步說明前面提到的結(jié)論。冒號后面句子的主體句式為one forecast came true within six months，而that 引導(dǎo)的這個句子是one forecast的具體內(nèi)容，是一個同位語從句。

　　句子譯文 麥克德莫特先生說這種演習(xí)的預(yù)測能力是驚人的：其中的一個預(yù)測是，一家公司將開始在該產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)得到一組資產(chǎn)，而這在六個月之后竟然真的實現(xiàn)了。

　　題目分析

　　1．D. 語義題。根據(jù)上下文，討論了實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)是否能夠用于商界，并談到許多老板都在向中國古代的著名軍事家孫武學(xué)習(xí)管理技巧。顯然，商業(yè)人士已經(jīng)在運用很多軍事上的理論。四個選項中，只有D比較符合文意

　　2．B. 細(xì)節(jié)題。文章第二段中，正如辦公用品公司施樂公司的首席戰(zhàn)略官約翰·麥克德莫特指出，“傳統(tǒng)的計劃方式很少把競爭者的反應(yīng)考慮在內(nèi)”，顯然答案是B。

　　3．D. 細(xì)節(jié)題。從第三段和第四段中，我們可以找到實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)之所以能夠產(chǎn)生積極效果，是因為這種演習(xí)擁有兩個重要的特點，同時還加入了“quantitative element”。而D選項并不是實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)積極效果的原因，而是結(jié)果。

　　4．C. 細(xì)節(jié)題。根據(jù)文章第三段第六行，各個團(tuán)隊列出所扮演公司“希望達(dá)到的一系列成果”，后面緊跟著的“preference tree”即為上文“desired outcomes”的同義詞。

　　5．A. 細(xì)節(jié)題。文章比較后一段總結(jié)說明了實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)模式之所以能夠成功的原因，列舉了三點，分別屬于B、C、D，而A選項與題意沒有任何關(guān)系。

　　參考譯文

　　軍隊經(jīng)常會利用實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)來評估戰(zhàn)略、探索各種情景，以發(fā)現(xiàn)一些無法預(yù)料到的問題。美國的軍艦和戰(zhàn)機已經(jīng)在海灣地區(qū)開始了為期兩周的演習(xí)，此舉引發(fā)了伊朗的抗議，上周韓國也啟動了其年度計算化實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)。

　　實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)是否能夠在商業(yè)中占有一席之地呢？許多軍事理論早已經(jīng)廣泛運用到了商業(yè)界，許多老板都在向中國古代的著名軍事家孫武學(xué)習(xí)管理技巧。商場如戰(zhàn)場，其結(jié)果取決于別人和自己分別采取了什么行動。但是，正如辦公用品公司施樂公司的首席戰(zhàn)略官約翰·麥克德莫特指出的那樣，許多公司沒有系統(tǒng)地去思考對手會針對他們的計劃采取什么措施—傳統(tǒng)的計劃方式很少把競爭者的反應(yīng)考慮在內(nèi)。公司實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)能夠促使參與者在市場中充分互動，從而更好地解決上述問題。

　　這種演習(xí)有兩個特點。首先，參與者原先所在的團(tuán)隊會被拆散，彼此成為激烈的競爭對手（有時候扮演普通市民，諸如顧客之類的角色）。其次，演習(xí)包括了好幾輪，從而使競爭者們不僅能夠策劃自己的戰(zhàn)略，而且也能夠?qū)ζ渌�人的選擇做出反應(yīng)。這種演習(xí)正在不斷普及。Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) 是一家咨詢公司，該公司在3年前每年舉辦50場實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)，而到現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)增加到了100場。Open Option是一家加拿大戰(zhàn)略咨詢公司，該公司自1996年開始舉辦實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)，到去年為止其收入已實現(xiàn)翻倍。

　　BAH把一些定量的元素加入到了演習(xí)中，即在每一輪結(jié)束的時候計算每個團(tuán)隊的戰(zhàn)略對于公司利潤以及股票價值的貢獻(xiàn)度。Open Options則采取了更進(jìn)一步的措施。為了幫助施樂公司更好地理解打印和復(fù)印工業(yè)的市場活力，Open Options為其制訂了一個為期一天的活動，活動中不同團(tuán)隊扮演市場中的各大公司，當(dāng)然也包括施樂公司自己。每個團(tuán)隊都為“自己的”公司制定了一系列的措施來改變公司戰(zhàn)略，并列出了他們希望達(dá)到的一系列成果；這些“偏好表”可以在各個團(tuán)隊之間分享。Open Options接著把結(jié)果都輸入到其擁有知識產(chǎn)權(quán)的一套軟件工具中，從而能夠模擬各個公司的互動，并產(chǎn)出一系列的可能結(jié)果。

　　麥克德莫特先生說這種演習(xí)的預(yù)測能力是驚人的：其中的一個預(yù)測是，一家公司將開始在該產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)得到一組資產(chǎn)，六個月后這事竟然真的實現(xiàn)了。通過弄清楚各家公司的重點領(lǐng)域，偏好表這一概念能夠幫助人們關(guān)注可能的交易和競爭。Open Options為其每一個北美的客戶設(shè)計一次演習(xí)都要收取高達(dá)10萬美元的費用。

　　但是實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)的成功秘訣不僅僅在于運用了數(shù)學(xué)知識。互動，而不是代數(shù)，才是贏得對新戰(zhàn)略支持的比較好辦法。因為相同的原因，所有的演習(xí)參與者都必須是公司的高級經(jīng)理—盡管在一個團(tuán)隊中有一個比較高領(lǐng)導(dǎo)會影響得到更好的反饋。所有的戰(zhàn)略也必須抓住競爭者比較難定義的公司文化：為此，當(dāng)設(shè)計一個演習(xí)的時候，BAH經(jīng)常會找出客戶公司中那些曾經(jīng)為對手公司工作過的雇員。但是實戰(zhàn)演習(xí)的比較大價值有可能在于演習(xí)能夠鼓勵經(jīng)理們從不同的角度來思考他們的行動可能產(chǎn)生的結(jié)果。正如孫武所說的那樣，“如果你想了解你的敵人，那么你就必須成為你的敵人”。